EU COMMUNICATIONS: Cellnex Announces Buybacks; Curve Steady

• MNI: FRANCE DEC FLASH MANUF PMI 41.9 (FCST:43.0); NOV 43.1
• FRANCE DEC FLASH SERVICES PMI 48.2 (FCST:46.9); NOV 46.9

• EFSF long-term funding plans: E21.5bln in 2025 (E20.0bln in 2024 with E18.0bln estimate from 2026).
• ESM funding plans: E7.0bln (E7.0bln in 2024 with E7.0bln estimate from 2026).
• (Corrects earlier bullet with EFSF/ESM labelled the wrong way round above)
• The 2026 estimates are new and the 2025 estimates are in line with the estimates published in December 2023.
• The ESM has confirmed that it will continue with its 3/6-month bill auctions through H1-25 (it will confirm H2-25 bill auction schedules in the June newsletter).

Gilts higher at the open, with core global FI peers ticking away from lows ahead of the gilt open.

• Futures recover to 94.42 before fading back to 94.32.
• Gilt futures traded sharply lower last week, resulting in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low.
• A continuation lower would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low.
• Key resistance and the bull trigger is 96.54, the Dec 3 high. Initial resistance is at 95.16, the 20-day EMA.
• Yields ~1.5bp lower across the curve.
• SONIA futures now little changed to +2.0 given the uptick in gilts.
• More colour on this week’s UK market movers and BoE pricing in our early STIR bullet.
• Ultimately, labour market (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) data will provide the major domestic inputs ahead of this week's BoE decision.
• Today’s flash PMI data could also impact.
• Expect our usual previews of the tier 1 data and BoE decision ahead of those events.