EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURHUF Outlook Remains Bearish
Jan-13 12:09
- EURHUF is trading closer to its recent lows and recent gains are considered corrective. The trend outlook is bearish, following the reversal from the Dec 12, 420.46 high and scope is for a deeper short-term pullback towards 391.55, the Aug 12 low. For bulls, initial firm resistance is at 403.92, the 50-day EMA. .
- The EURPLN outlook still appears bearish. The cross breached support at 4.6528 in December, the Aug 15 low. This breach highlights a resumption of the downtrend. This has opened 4.6262 next, the Jun 21 low, ahead of the 4.6000 handle. Most recently, the cross has recovered from its lows but remains below resistance and short-term gains are considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 4.7220, the Dec 6 high. A break of this hurdle is required to suggest potential for a stronger recovery.
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US EURODLR FUTURES: Post-LIBOR Settle Update: Aftermath of CPI Miss
Dec-14 12:03
Lead quarterly Dec'22 (EDZ2) bounces to 95.2625 (+0.0075) after latest 3M LIBOR set' falls -0.03271 to 4.73629% (+0.00315/wk) -- aftermath of Tue's lower than exp CPI inflation measure.
- Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 at 50.1bp, Feb'23 cumulative 82.6bp (91.4bp pre-CPI) to 4.657%, Mar'23 95.6bp (108.4bp pre-CPI) to 4.788%, terminal at 4.815% in May'23.
- Balance of Eurodollar Whites-Reds (EDH3-EDU4) +0.030-0.055, Greens-Blues (EDZ4-EDU6) +0.040-0.015, Golds (EDZ6-EDU7) steady to +/-0.005.
- Current deferred spds vs. prior settle
- Jun'23/Sep'23: currently -0.170 vs. -0.160
- Dec'22/Red Dec'23: -0.255 vs. -0.200
- Mar'23/Red Mar'24: -0.955 vs. -0.935
- Jun'23/Red Jun'24: -1.360 vs. -1.350
- Tuesday options summary: Varied trade on moderate volumes Tuesday - no follow through from Monday's better upside call buying even as underlying futures gapped higher following lower than expected Nov CPI data. If there was a discernible theme to option trade ahead Wed's FOMC annc it would be position unwinds, implied vol weaker as accts unwound both call and put positions.
LIBOR: US FIX - 14/12/22
Dec-14 12:02
- O/N 3.81586
- 1M 4.32629
- 3M 4.73629
- 6M 5.12529
- 12M 5.40686
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +3.2% SA THRU DEC 09 WK
Dec-14 12:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +3.2% SA THRU DEC 09 WK
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Mar-27 20:13
