CEE FX: Looser Fed Pricing Aids HUF, PLN; CZK Unable to Benefit
The extension higher in EUR/USD as markets price in greater odds of a 50bp rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting has aided the strengthening recovery in HUF and PLN off last week’s lows, while CZK lags its regional peers.
- USDHUF and USDPLN sit around 0.7% lower on the session, with concerns of intense flooding in central Europe doing little to impede the local currencies. The NBH has placed significant importance on the decisions of major central banks, and therefore a 50bp Fed cut will provide the central bank room to resume its own easing cycle at this month’s meeting (Sep 24).
- In Poland, communication from MPC members has remained hawkish, though Council members have opened the door to discussions of rate cuts beginning in around Q2 next year.
- CZK has lagged PLN and HUF during Monday trade – which has become a theme on a month-to-date basis with CZK’s spot gains versus the euro behind that of its CE3 peers. PPI data this morning came in lower-than-expected, solidifying market bets of another 25bp cut next week.
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USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020
- RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022
- RES 2: 1.3856/3946 High Aug 6 / 5 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3755 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3708 @ 16:14 BST Aug 16
- SUP 1: 1.3689/57 Low Aug 14 / Low Jul 17
- SUP 2: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
The trend condition in USDCAD remains bullish and the latest pullback still appears to be a correction. However, note that price has breached an important support at 1.3730, the 50-day EMA. An extension lower would undermine the bull theme and highlight scope for a deeper retracement towards 1.3657, the Jul 17 low. On the upside, a confirmed reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and key resistance.
AUDUSD TECHS: Has Breached Moving Average Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6799 High Jul 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6744 High Jul 18
- RES 2: 0.6693 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6643 High Aug 14
- PRICE: 0.6641 @ 16:12 BST Aug 16
- SUP 1: 0.6565 Low Aug 12
- SUP 2: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23
- SUP 4: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
AUDUSD continues to trade at its recent highs. From a short-term perspective, the latest recovery still appears to be a correction, however, price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for stronger gains, towards 0.6693, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on 0.6530, the Aug 5 low.
COMMODITIES: Gold Soars to Fresh Record High Above $2,500
- Gold soared to a fresh all-time-high on Friday, notably rising above the psychological $2,500/oz mark. The rise follows US data indicating inflation slowed last month while retail sales surged, easing recession worries while strengthening expectations the Federal Reserve can begin easing in September.
- "Gold's data dependency remains paramount, as jobs, inflation, and economic data all have the potential to clarify the Fed's path and future monetary policy," a strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note.
- The technical break above $2483.7, the Jul 17 high and bull trigger resumes the uptrend. The initial target of note is $2528.4, the 3.00 projection of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing.
- WTI crude futures have weakened 1.7% on the session, keeping the front-month contract roughly flat week-on-week. Notably, Commerzbank revised their oil price forecast downwards on weak China demand with Brent at $85/bbl and WTI at $80/bbl by year end.
- OPEC+ has succeeded in fine tuning its supply to support prices, but planned cut unwinding could create downward pressure, according to Platts.
- For natural gas, Henry Hub has pulled back to its lowest level since Aug. 9. Indications of cooling weather, robust production levels, and a continued - albeit shrinking - storage surplus have added pressure.
