UK DATA: CBI Order Book Broadly Unchanged, Price Expectations Rise to Highest Since May'23
Mar-22 11:00
UK CBI Order Books Balance were reported "broadly unchanged at -18% (vs -20 prior) in March, remaining below "normal" and below the long run average of -13%.
- Expectations for average selling price inflation picked up in March to 21% (from 17% in February) - the third consecutive monthly rise, making it the highest since May 2023 and comfortably above the long-run average of 7%. This pickup will be concerning to the MPC as it looks to cut rates at an upcoming meeting (June / August both look possible start dates for the easing cycle).
- Survey conducted between 26 February and 13 March.
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MNI: UK FEB CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -20
Feb-21 11:00
- MNI: UK FEB CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -20
- UK CBI FEB PRICE INTENTIONS 17
BONDS: US Treasuries are leading higher
Feb-21 10:51
- Bund continues to recover from the lows, with the supply out of the way.
- US Treasuries have somewhat been leading as the longer end part of the curve has caught with 2yr (TUA) and 5yr (FVA) futures.
- The Bund did trade as high as 133.40, but resistance moves up to 133.56.
- As already mentioned for the US Tnotes, some will look at the 110.17+ level, the 15th December high, others will eye 4.20% which is closer to ~110.19.
GILTS: Morgan Stanley Recommend Shorts Roll Early
Feb-21 10:42
Ahead of the quarterly gilt futures roll Morgan Stanley note that “positioning seems skewed towards shorts. We recommend outstanding shorts roll early.”
- Beyond positioning they believe that optionality and net basis provide some mildly bearish inputs, suggesting that “the current probability of a switch in CTD is not negligible in this roll cycle.”
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