OIL: Caspian CPC Oil Loadings to Remain Unchanged in September

US indices start mixed-to-flat, with an early fade in tech names swiftly reversed in the opening minutes (E-mini S&P, NASDAQ, DJIA futures lower by 0.1-0.2%). The quiet calendar and smooth absorption of EU, Mexico tariff threats may suggest markets see a decent chance of a modification or moderation in Trump's tariff pledge over the weekend. Recall last week's reports that EU ministers had been scrambled for a possible announcement on US trade, suggesting negotiating teams are well advanced in talks.  

Technically, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. The recent rally resulted in a break of key resistance and the bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. 

With the data schedule light Monday, near-term focus shifts to Trump's 'Major statement' on Russia, the US CPI print tomorrow (which may finally rule out a Fed  rate cut at the July meeting) and the beginning of earnings season. 9.4% of the S&P 500's market cap is set to report this week, with the usual early focus on big banks and financials. Highlights are:

• TUES: JP Morgan, Citigroup, BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo, Blackrock
• WEDS: Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs
• THURS: General Electric, Netflix, PepsiCo
• FRI: American Express, 3M, Charles Schwab

Our full quarterly earnings schedule found here, including EPS, revenue expectations and full timings: https://mni.marketnews.com/44tWRA8

Little to truly explain the recent bid in core global FI.

• Oil has continued to tick lower, providing background support, but the bond bid came well after the bulk of the move in crude.
• Elsewhere, the lack of follow through after 10-Year U.S. Tsy yields pierced last week’s high and failure of bond bears to take out the ’23 top in German 30-Year yields add a technical aspect to the move.
• Note that 5+-Year Tsys have reversed their widening vs. Bunds, although it is gilts that continue to outperform given cues via dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey and the soft REC labour market report.
• Focus on any incoming comments from U.S. President Trump re: Russia, although there isn’t much in the way of firm timing indications there.  Note that he is set to begin a meeting with Nato Secretary General Rutte imminently, so there could be some comments released following that event.

Nye Cominetti, Resolution Foundation Principal Economist, on the timing and scale of hit from UK employment law changes.-- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com