US TSYS: Carry-Over Support, Extending Highs on Weaker Stocks
Mar-20 10:53
- Treasury futures are extending overnight highs at the moment, carry-over support after Wednesday's post-FOMC rally, while weaker equities over the last hour are contributing to the move. Brief dip in Tsys overnight as EGBs lagged core peers on incoming supply before the weaker equities spurred risk off bid.
- Currently, the Jun'25 10Y contract trades +9.5 at 111-09.5 vs. 111-11 high, initial technical resistance above at 111-25 (High Mar 11), a clear breach of this level would open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projections.
- Tsy 10Y yield slips to 4.2045% (-.0383), March 11 lows, curves mixed: 2s10s -.478 at 25.746, 5s30s +.112 at 52.944.
- BBG US$ index bouncing to March 14 levels (BBDXY +4.19 at 1268.58), Gold weaker but still above 3000.0 at 3027.95.
- Bank of England policy annc at 0800ET (after Riksbank/steady and SNB/cut overnight).
- US Data resumes at 0830ET with Initial Jobless Claims, Current Account Balance and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, followed by Leading Index and Existing Home Sales at 1000ET. Tsy bills & end-of-March coupon annc at 1100ET, $75B each 4W & 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $18B 10Y TIPS re-open (91282CML2) at 1300ET, Treasury buyback operation at 1400ET.
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EGB SYNDICATION: Slovakia 15-year SlovGB mandate
Feb-18 10:51
"The Slovak Republic acting through the Ministry of Finance and represented by the Debt and Liquidity Management Agency (ARDAL), has mandated HSBC, J.P. Morgan, Slovenska sporitelna (Erste Group) and Tatra banka (RBI Group) as Joint Lead Managers and Joint Bookrunners for a new RegS Bearer EUR 15-year benchmark offering, with a maturity date on 27-Feb-2040, to be launched in the near future subject to market conditions." From market source
- The maturity is a little shorter than we had expected, we had looked for a new 12-year 2037 SlovGB to launch via syndication in February.
- Historically, Slovakia left its first syndication of the year until April but there has been a February syndication in each of the past two years.
- We pencil in a transaction size of E2.5-3.5bln.
BUNDS: BTP/Bund spread sees Tightening momentum
Feb-18 10:48
- BTP/Bund spread has cleared that initial 106.00bps level earlier, is now gaining some traction through 105.00bps, testing 104.00bps at present.
- Investors will be looking at the Psychological 100.00bps level for the next support, although better will be seen nearer the ~97.7bps area. the September 2021 low.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Trend Needle Points North
Feb-18 10:48
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis continue to climb and the contract maintains a firmer tone. Attention is on resistance at 6162.25, the Jan 24 high. Clearance of this level would expose the key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. A move above this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.On the downside, initial key support has been defined at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. A break would highlight a bearish development. First support lies at 6075.54, the 20-day EMA.
- The trend needle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish. The move higher last week confirmed once again, a resumption of the uptrend that started on Nov 21 ‘24. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A major resistance at 5525.00, the March 2000 all-time high (cont), has been pierced. A clear break of it would highlight a key bullish technical breach. This would open 5552.90 2.764, a projection of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing. Support to watch is 5325.83, the 20-day EMA.
