MNI EXCLUSIVE: Canada Export Finance Bank Economist Discusses Oil Shock Impact

• Stocks held moderate gains late Tuesday, off the top end of the range as crude prices stabilize but remain elevated (WTI +2.75 at $96.25/bbl), markets pivoting from diplomatic hope back to supply-chain reality amid further Iranian attacks on shipping/energy infrastructure.
• The Energy sector led advances with energy equipment/services shares outperforming oil and gas shares in late trade: Halliburton, Baker Hughes and SLB Ltd gained 3-4.7% by the second half while APA Corp, Diamondback Energy and ConocoPhillips gained 2-3.5%.
• Financial services shares advanced with Global Payments climbing 6.65% followed by Apollo Global Management +5.24% as private sector loan default risk was reassessed.
• On the flipside, pharmaceutical makers led declines in late trade: Eli Lilly & Co down 6.25% as analysts discounted obesity drugs expectations. Cencora Inc declined -3.38%.
   

• The Eurozone unemployment rate continues to paint a very healthy picture of the labour market, falling to a fresh series low of 6.1% on an EA21 basis from 6.2% in December and 6.3% in November. These data are prone to revisions but for now this previously bottomed out at 6.2% in Sep-Dec 2024.
• This improvement has been seen in the older than 25-year-old cohort with young workers struggling in comparison although still with unemployment rates at historically low levels for those entry-level positions that are likely more prone to AI disruption.
• On balance, President Lagarde can still characterise the labour market as she did in last month’s Q&A: it’s still an active with market unemployment almost at rock bottom and certainly not in difficulty. 

• RES 4: 0.8818 High Nov 26 ‘25
• RES 3: 0.8806 76.4% retracement of the Nov 14 - Feb 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8739/89 High Mar 3 / High Feb 27 and key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.8654/8693 High Mar 13 / 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8639 @ 16:35 GMT Mar 17
• SUP 1: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase 

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has pierced support at 0.8613, the Feb 4 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bear theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8789, the Feb 27 high. The first important resistance to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 0.8693.