US LABOR MARKET: ... But Uncertainty Over Severe Winter Storms Hit

And generally speaking, lending standards have largely been steady across most categories of loans and could probably be characterized as neutral, albeit they have lately been heading toward looser conditions for households and for some categories of business lending. This is not indicative of a loose credit environment however.

• For households, in Q4 there were "basically unchanged lending standards... across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans" while "standards reportedly eased for auto loans and remained basically unchanged for credit card and other consumer loans".
• For businesses, "survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes" as well as "generally unchanged standards" for commercial real estate (CRE) loans.

The Federal Reserve's January 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices showed only limited changes in lending standards and client demand in Q4 2025. There's not much in the report that was available to the FOMC at last week's meeting that would have changed any minds about the outlook, though if anything the modest improvements on the demand side probably suggested stable enough conditions to warrant postponing rate cuts until later in the year.

• That being said, overall demand for residential and commercial real estate lending appears to have edged up to the strongest levels in 3 or so years following firmly negative readings, while commercial/industrial loan demand has picked up slightly as well. For consumers there has been a divergence with ex-auto loan demand picking up but auto loans seeing a downturn in demand.
• In terms of business lending, the SLOOS report notes "banks reported stronger demand for C&I loans to large and middle-market firms" but "basically unchanged demand for C&I loans to small firms".  There was "on net ... stronger demand for commercial real estate (CRE) loans". We especially note the strongest nonfarm non-residential commercial real estate demand since 2021.
• On the household loan demand side, the SLOOS report highlighted "weaker demand across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans" " while demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans but remained basically unchanged for credit card loans."

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 02/03 0800 Richmond Fed Barkin on economy (text, Q&A)
• 02/03 0940 Fed VC Bowman WSJ moderated discussion, live event
• 02/03 1000 JOLTS report likely delayed due to the US Gov shutdown
• 02/03 1130 US Tsy $90B 6W bill auction
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI