ECB: Bundesbank's Nagel: Rates Still Expansionary, Initiate QT At Start Of 2023

Nov-18 13:13

Bundesbank's Nagel sounding typically hawkish in a speech totay, calling for QT to start "at the beginning of next year". Like Fed's Bullard yesterday, we even get a Taylor Rule reference in his speech. Unlike Bullard, not much of a hawkish reaction to Nagel's comments.

  • "We must resolutely raise our key rates further and adopt a restrictive stance...we cannot stop here. Further decisive steps are necessary."
  • Says current rate level "cannot ensure a timely return of inflation to our 2% target." And he considers discussion over whether the ECB has reached restrictive territory "premature". Various measures suggest rates are currently "expansionary", including the Taylor rule.
  • "In abnormal times with inflation in double digits, a mere normalisation of monetary policy might not be enough... If we don’t act decisively now, we run the risk of having to tighten monetary policy all the more later."

Historical bullets

CANADA: Sequential Inflation Rates Perhaps More Concern For BoC

Oct-19 13:12
  • Whilst the three BoC measures are in Y/Y terms and in the case of the more heavily weighted median and trim measures were broadly as expected in Sept, the sequential run rates required to see the small step higher in ex food & energy inflation to 5.4% Y/Y is perhaps more concerning for the BoC.
  • Seasonally adjusted ex food & energy inflation accelerated back to 0.42% M/M on shelter as it reversed a brief dip to 0.28% in Aug, with the same move in the ex 8 volatile times & indirect taxes category.


BONDS: Gilt/Bund spread drifts to session low

Oct-19 13:05
  • Gilt/Bund spread started the European opening session wider, now drifting lower, and 2bps tighter.
  • Support comes at 160.00bps, but better is seen towards 154.24, the 50% retrace of the July/September widening.

STIR: Effective Fed Funds Rate

Oct-19 13:04

FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

  • Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 3.08% volume: $103B
  • Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 3.07% volume: $276B