EGB OPTIONS: Bund Call Spread Buyer
Oct-26 09:06
RXZ2 144.5/147.5 call spread bought for 31 in 14k, v 138.57
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points South
Sep-26 09:06
- RES 4: 0.6838 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 0.6747 High Sep 20
- RES 2: 0.6656 HIgh Sep 23
- RES 1: 0.6550 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6523 @ 10:02 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 0.6484 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6464 61.8% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6402 Low May 15 2020
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low May 4 2020
AUDUSD has resumed its downtrend today. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 0.6682, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger. The break strengthens bearish conditions and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This has opened 0.6451 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6747, the Sep 20 high.
BOE: What happens if an APF gilt sales operation isn't filled?
Sep-26 08:43
- Lots of market talk as to what happens if there is an uncovered BOE APF gilt sales auction - and whether the BOE would accept a big discount if there were not enough acceptable bids to clear the whole GBP580mln auction amount.
- The answer is: there a minimum prices the BOE will accept, any unallocated sales proceeds are rolled over to future auctions, and the BOE also retains the right to cancel and re-schedule any sales operation to either later in the day or a future day before the publication of results - note that the latter has been used previously in terms of technical difficulties when the BOE was buying rather than selling gilts.
- The following details are from BOE Market Notices:
- "The Bank intends to set minimum levels for the bid prices / maximum yields it is willing to accept, as a backstop, in support of its objective not to disrupt the functioning of financial markets. This backstop will be set at a level such that it would not be expected to bind regularly, but would allow the Bank to respond to evidence of particularly weak demand within the auction by reducing the amount it supplies in those conditions."
- "Any unallocated sales proceeds in an auction will be incorporated into the sales proceeds target for future auctions in order that the MPC’s target reduction in the stock of gilts will still be met."
- "The Bank reserves the right to cancel an auction at any time before the results are published, at its sole discretion. If an auction is cancelled it may be re-scheduled to take place later the same day, or on a future date. "
GERMAN DATA: Ifo Sees Outlook Worsen
Sep-26 08:27
GERMANY SEP IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE 84.3 (FCST 87.0); AUG 88.6r
GERMANY SEP IFO CURRENT ASSESSMENT 94.5 (FCST 96.0); AUG 97.5
GERMANY SEP IFO EXPECTATIONS 75.2 (FCST 79.0); AUG 80.5r
- The German Ifo business survey slumped to the lowest since May 2020 as outlooks across manufacturing, services, trade and construction all fell further into pessimistic territory. Ifo continues to expect a Q3 contraction.
- The headline index, current assessment and expectations indexes again fell further than expected.
- Acute concerns regarding inflation and gas/energy supply shortages remain key issues headed into year-end. Although Friday's PMIs saw supply chain issues easing, this effect has clearly been overshadowed by gloomy economic growth outlooks.
- On Wednesday the GfK consumer confidence index will be released, likely to slide to a fresh low and generate further concern for the ECB as they hike into a recession.
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Mar-27 20:13
