SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25
- PRICE: $32.380 @ 07:58 BST May 8
- SUP 1: $31.668 - Low May 1
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A bullish theme in Silver remains intact and the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is a correction. Key short-term support has been defined at $31.668, the May 1 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt Calls, 91.69/91.75 range.
EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls
EU Cash Opening calls, set for a punchy Open.
- Calls: Estox 50: +1.90%, Dax: +1.72%, CAC: +1.42%, FTSE +1.43%, SMI +2.05%.
STIR: Euribor Futures Soften Alongside Bunds; Tariff Developments Key As Ever
Euribor futures are -1.5 to -2.5 ticks through the blues versus yesterday’s settlement levels, softening alongside Bunds amid a modest stabilisation of risk yesterday evening. With today’s regional data calendar light, focus remains squarely on further tariff-related headlines.
- ERZ5 is -1.5 ticks at 98.215, after briefly reaching a multi-month high of 98.335 in yesterday’s session.
- ECB-dated OIS continue to assign a ~90% implied probability of a 25bp rate cut at next Thursday’s decision, while 77bps of cuts are priced through year-end vs 78bps at yesterday’s close.
- Holzmann ECB’s (hawk) and Cipollone (dove) are scheduled to speak today. Holzmann has repeatedly noted in recent weeks that he no longer views policy rates as restrictive, and would consider voting for a hold in April.
- Meanwhile, Cipollone has previously warned of the disinflationary impact of Chinese trade diversion following US tariffs, alongside continued worries around the Eurozone growth outlook.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Apr-25 | 2.193 | -22.1 |
| Jun-25 | 1.976 | -43.8 |
| Jul-25 | 1.865 | -54.9 |
| Sep-25 | 1.747 | -66.7 |
| Oct-25 | 1.706 | -70.8 |
| Dec-25 | 1.647 | -76.7 |
| Feb-26 | 1.637 | -77.8 |
| Mar-26 | 1.633 | -78.1 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
