USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Extension

Aug-31 07:13
  • RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
  • RES 3: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
  • RES 2: 1.3135 High Jul 15
  • RES 1: 1.3108 High Aug 30
  • PRICE: 1.3082 @ 08:12 BST Aug 31
  • SUP 1: 1.2947 20-day EMA
  • SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
  • SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
  • SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15

USDCAD traded higher again Tuesday. This confirms an extension of recent gains and maintains the current bullish theme. The latest move higher has resulted in a break above resistance at 1.3063, Aug 23 high. The move strengthens bullish conditions and opens 1.3135 next, the Jul 15 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2895. A break would alter the picture.

Historical bullets

AUD: AUDUSD edges back above 0.7000

Aug-01 07:11
  • AUDUSD edges back above 0.7000, still well within Friday's range
  • .Further upside traction, opens to Friday's high at 0.7032, which was also the highest print since the 17th June.
  • Most markets participants awaits on the RBA decision tomorrow, when a widely 50bps HIKE is expected up to 1.85%.

MARKET INSIGHT: What to watch

Aug-01 06:59
  • The focus this morning will be on the PMI manufacturing prints that we have not seen preliminary prints for (most notably Spain, Italy and Norway) alongside any revisions (particularly lower) to the existing prints released on 22 July. We have already received the Swedish print.
  • The ISM manufacturing index, due for release at 15:00BST / 16:00CET will be even more closely watched, particularly some of the components such as new orders and employment that fell below 50 in June. And the priced paid component that is expected to fall for a fourth consecutive month.
  • Markets will also look ahead to later in the week with the BOE MPR and policy decision due Thursday (markets price in almost an 80% probability priced for 50bp with 25bp fully priced). Both the magnitude of the hike and the guidance will be in focus.
  • Friday will also see the US employment report released with markets currently fully pricing a 50bp September hike with around a 30% probability of 75bp priced. This means there is scope for rate expectations to move either way on the back of Friday's report.

GILTS: Early opening calls

Aug-01 06:51

Early Gilts calls, 118.09/118.15 range