USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
* RES 4: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb - 12 price swing * RES 3: 161.00 round number resista...
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USDJPY TECHS: Pierces 50-day EMA
- RES 4: 161.95 High Jul 3 ‘24 and a major resistance
- RES 3: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb - 12 price swing
- RES 2: 160.79 1.500 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb - 12 price swing
- RES 1: 160.03/160.46 High Apr 7 / High Mar 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 159.25 @ 15:44 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: 157.59 Low Apr 17
- SUP 2: 157.04 100-DMA
- SUP 3: 156.46 Low Mar 5
- SUP 4: 155.85 Low Mar 2
Prices dropped sharply Friday on Iran de-escalation, pushing price through the 50-day EMA support to touch the 50-dma at 157.66 for the first time since early February. Further weakness here needs to test 156.46 to knock trend monitor studies lower, keeping the broader outlook positive for now, and highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. The recovery from last week’s low reinforces current conditions and scope is seen for a climb towards 160.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.
US TSY OPTIONS: May'26 Options Expiration Details
May'26 Treasury options expire Friday, latest open interest as of Tuesday's close below. Decent open interest for several strikes in 5s and 10s in focus. Options that are 0.5 tic in-the-money (0.25 tic for 5-, 2-yr opt's) are auto-exercised. Underlying futures are modestly weaker this morning, off overnight lows.
| Expiry | Total Calls | Total Puts | Total | Nearest ATM Strike (Total C/P) |
| May 30Y | 268,130 | 251,808 | 519,938 | 113.50 (3,694C / 9,601P; 13,295 total) |
| 114.00 (7,565C / 12,889P; 20,454 total) | ||||
| 114.50 (3,717C / 1,934P; 5,651 total) | ||||
| May 10Y | 1,000,086 | 1,123,926 | 2,114,012 | 111.00 (69,212C / 143,703P; 212,815 total) |
| 111.25 (22,462C / 48,621P; 71,083 total) | ||||
| 111.50 (65,604C / 53,630P; 119,234 total) | ||||
| May 5Y | 690,664 | 536,248 | 1,226,912 | 108.00 (27,477C / 93,320P; 120,779 total) |
| 108.25 (23.856C / 48,683P; 72,539 total) | ||||
| 108.50 (23,308C / 19,137P; 42,445 total) | ||||
| May 2Y | 275,411 | 160,010 | 435,421 | 103.62 (7,073C / 8,470P; 15,543 total) |
| 103.75 (8.343C / 23,385P; 31,728 total) | ||||
| 103.88 (22.650C, 18,454P; 41,104 total) |
US: Donald Trump's Approval Dips Further Amid Iran War Fallout
After a relatively static period, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slumped to a new low, according to Silver Bulletin’s polling tracker. The dip appears driven by voter anxiety over inflation, with Trump’s approval on the economy and inflation declining, while his approval on immigration continues to trend back upward.
- A new AP NORC survey found, "As gas prices have risen amid the ongoing war in Iran, public views of President Trump’s handling of the economy have declined. Thirty percent approve of his handling of the economy, down from 38% in March."
- A new survey from Marquette Law School finds, "93% say gas prices are up; in January 50% said they were down • 24% approve of Trump’s handling of inflation, with Republican support of his policies declining"
- Nate Silver writes on Substack, on the correlation between Trump's approval and the GOP's midterm outlook: “Trump’s approval rating actually again hit a new second-term low … But Democrats are ahead by “only” 5.7 points in our generic ballot average. I put “only” in scare quotes because that’s probably enough for Democrats to take the House anyway, and make the Senate competitive. But Democrats will probably need a couple more points than that to give themselves even or better odds in the upper chamber. (Or at least, that’s what I assume our model will say. Sometimes it surprises me.)"
Figure 1: President Donald Trump Net Approval Rating
Source: Silver Bulletin
