JGBS: Breakevens to support OIS ahead of Ueda speech despite high bar for CPI

 Financial Times: "China is poised to resume exporting jet fuel, gasoline and diesel from May, in a move that could significantly ease the worldwide shortages caused by the Iran conflict."

"The country’s large state oil companies have applied for export permits to ship fuel in May, according to several trading sources, signalling that a ban that was introduced at the start of the war to protect domestic supplies may be relaxed. "

Link here

Conference Board consumer confidence surprisingly increased in April as perceptions of the present situation held up much better than expected and expectations surprisingly improved. Whilst still on the low side compared to recent years, it still paints a less pessimistic picture than U.Mich sentiment which hit a series low in April.

• Consumer confidence: 92.8 (cons 89.0) in April after upward revision to 92.2 (initial 91.8) in March
• Present situation: 123.8 (cons 120.1) in April after upward revision to 124.1 (initial 123.3) in March
• Expectations: 72.2 (cons 69.2) in April after fractionally upward revised 71.0 (initial 70.9) in March
• It marks a third consecutive monthly improvement in the main confidence index after the 89.0 in January was its lowest since 85.7 in Apr 2025 after tariff announcements.
• For recent context, it compares with the 95.8 averaged in 2H25, 96.4 in 1H25, 104.5 in 2024 and 105.4 in 2023 whilst it hit 85.7 in the depths of the pandemic to match the initial tariff hit.
• It therefore continues a rough trend decline in confidence, but the deterioration under the Trump administration has been less severe than its U.Mich counterpart where sentiment recorded a series low in April. It’s generally assumed that the U.Mich survey tends to be more susceptible to personal finance and inflation developments whereas as the Conference Board survey is more sensitive to the labor market.
• Within the details, the share expecting higher interest rates over the next year increased further from 59.3% to 62.8% for its highest since Aug 23.
• The share expecting higher stock prices over the next twelve months also improved on the month from 47.4 to 49.2% but it remains below the 53.7 averaged in Dec-Feb at what had been its highest since Jan 2025.
• “The survey period for this month’s preliminary results was April 1–22, a period that included the temporary two-week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict beginning April 8 and the subsequent rebound in US equities.”

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 04/28 $1.25B #Serbia 10Y +145, includes EUR1B 5Y & Eur900M 12Y legs
• 04/28 $750M #Emirates NBD Perp NC6 6.25%