EM LATAM CREDIT: Bradesco: Q3 2025 Earnings - Neutral

Job openings were relatively steady in August in the latest JOLTS report, totaling 7,227k (SA, vs 7,200k consensus) with July's slightly upwardly revised to 7,208k (from 7,181k). But secondary metrics suggested further loosening in labor market conditions, and while there was no marked deterioration in the month, overall the report bolstered the prevailing "low hiring, low firing" narrative.

• The first was the ratio of openings to the number of unemployed, which fell to 0.98 from 1.00 - lowest and first time below 1.0 since April 2021 (July's held that title, but was revised up from 0.99).
• The second was the quits rate, which fell to a 9-month low 1.9% (the number of quits fell to 3,091k vs 3,165k consensus - from 3,166k prior rev from 3,208k). The private sector quits rate dipped to 2.1% for the first time in 8 months, from 2.2% (we calculate at 2.14% from 2.20%). The rate dropped or was steady across the vast majority of sectors, with a fall in leisure and hospitality quits (3.3%, lowest in over a decade, from 4.2% prior) standing out in particular as this had been one of the hottest pandemic-reopening sectors.
• The third was a further deterioration in the hiring rate, at 3.21%, down from 3.28%. Excluding the pandemic-hit April 2020, that's the lowest hiring rate since September 2012. The private sector hiring rate is just 3.53%, with the government hiring rate of 1.36% (0.82% federal) both around the lowest in a decade or more (ex-pandemic).
• The fourth, in the "low firing" department, the level of layoffs was relatively tame at 1,725k, down from 1,787k prior for a 3-month low and well below the rise to 1,827k expected, keeping the layoffs rate steady at 1.1%.
• The vacancy rate ticked up very slightly (to 4.33% from 4.32%).

• Ahead of tomorrow's flash Eurozone HICP print, we track the Y/Y print at 2.2-2.3%Y/Y.
• This is broadly in line with consensus. The median estimate in the Bloomberg survey is 2.2%Y/Y but 20/44 analysts in the survey look for 2.3% (or higher).
• We have so far received data from countries that make up 83.1% of the index.

• With Tnotes through the session high, and now eyeing the next resistance noted at 113.00, the USDJPY extends further losses taking its cue from the lower Yield.
• Next Immediate support in USDJPY comes at 147.46.
• EGBs, Bund and Gilt are dragged higher, with likely some positioning and squaring as we head into the European unofficial close given the US Goverment shutdown deadline day.