EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Reversal Threat
- RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.0440/0533 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 1.0386 @ 06:10 GMT Feb 28
- SUP 1: 1.0373 Low Feb 13
- SUP 2: 1.0335 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.0272 Low Feb 4
- SUP 4: 1.0233 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
EURUSD traded lower Thursday and in the process breached an important near-term support at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low. The pair is also trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this highlights a possible bearish reversal signal. A continuation lower would open 1.0272, the Feb 4 low. For bulls, key short-term resistance is 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would reinstate a recent bull theme and open 1.0630, the Dec 6 high.
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GBPUSD: Trading Below Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2517/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27
- PRICE: 1.2457 @ 06:03 GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: 1.2392/2294 20-day EMA / Low Jan 23
- SUP 2: 1.2229 Low Jan 21
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2517 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10 low and bear trigger.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 117.820 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 117.627 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 117.490 Low Dec 30
- RES 1: 117.097/180 20-day EMA / High Jan 22
- PRICE: 116.860 @ 05:41 GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: 116.550/280 Low Jan 24 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
A short-term bullish corrective phase in Bobl futures remains in play - for now - despite the pullback from recent highs. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal and the start of the correction. An extension higher would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.097, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.
EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.0696 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 2: 1.0574 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27
- PRICE: 1.0438 @ 05:53 GMT Jan 29
- SUP 1: 1.0392 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0260 Low Jan 15
- SUP 3: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD has pulled back from its recent highs but for now, remains in a short-term bull cycle - a correction. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 1.0459. A clear break of the average would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 1.0574, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch is 1.0392, the 20-day EMA. A move through the EMA would signal a possible reversal.
