EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

Fed Links (likely URLs based on previous meetings), would only go live at 2pm ET:

• Statement
• Implement. note

• US rates have somewhat pared earlier losses ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision but still see large losses on the day with strong increases in crude oil futures (WTI 1st 6.6%) on a lack of progress on US-Iran peace talks.
• Fed Funds have mostly priced out cuts for 2026 and see a very mild hiking bias in 1H27 ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision.
• FF cumulative moves from 3.64% effective: 0bp Apr, 0bp Jun, -1bp Jul, -1.5bp Sep, -2bp Oct, -1bp Dec before +5bp Mar 2027 and +6bp Jun 2027.
• SOFR futures are currently up to 10.5 ticks lower in M7 and U7 contracts, with SFRM7 comfortably at lows since Mar 27 (currently 96.255 vs Mar 27 low 96.165 – last lower in Feb 2025).
• The terminal implied yield of 3.585% (H8, +7bp) would mark its highest close of the Middle East conflict. It has seen a range of 3.075% (Mar 2) - 3.55% (Mar 26) for closes since first US-Israel strikes on Iran on Feb 28.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 04/30 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (214k, 213k), Continuing Claims (1.821M, 1.815M)
• 04/30 0830 Personal Income (-0.1%, 0.3%), Personal Spending (0.5%, 0.9%)
• 04/30 0830 Personal Consumption (1.9%, 1.4%)
• 04/30 0830 PCE Price Index MoM (0.4%, 0.7%), YoY (2.8%, 3.5%)
• 04/30 0830 Core PCE Price Index MoM (0.4%, 0.3%), YoY (3.0%, 3.2%)
• 04/30 0830 Core PCE Price Index QoQ (2.7%, 4.1%)
• 04/30 0830 Employment Cost Index (0.7%, 0.8%)
• 04/30 0830 GDP Annualized QoQ (0.5%, 2.2%)
• 04/30 0830 GDP Price Index (3.7%, 3.8%)
• 04/30 0945 MNI Chicago PMI (52.8, 55.2)
• 04/30 1000 Leading Index 
• 04/30 1130 US Tsy $80B 4W & $75B 8W bill auctions
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI