USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

Jun-06 18:30
  • RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
  • RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
  • RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a reversal trigger
  • RES 1: 145.19/146.28 50-day EMA / High May 29 and key resistance   
  • PRICE: 144.93 @ 15:58 BST Jun 6
  • SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
  • SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
  • SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
  • SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish, despite Friday’s counter-trend price action. These short-term gains are considered corrective at these levels. Attention is on the next important support at 142.12, the May 27 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low. Moving average studies remain in a clear bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.28, the May 29 high.    

Historical bullets

STIR: Contained Reaction To FOMC Announcement

May-07 18:27
  • Having rallied into the FOMC reaction on tariff headlines, rates reaction is relatively contained following the FOMC statement.
  • Fed Funds implied rates are 0.5-3.5bp lower for 2025 meetings.
  • That includes levels that imply 82bp of cuts for 2025 as a whole but that still has near enough an entire 25bp cut omitted vs pre ISM mfg levels from Thursday.
  • Cumulative cuts from an assumed 4.33% effective: 7.5bp Jun, 24bp Jul, 45bp Sep, 63bp Oct and 82bp Dec.
  • SOFR implied yields are up to 3bps lower post-announcement, led by the Mar 2026.
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US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'25 10Y Call Sale

May-07 18:23
  • -11,500 TYM5 113 calls, 11 ref 111-16

STIR: Dec'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Spread Sale

May-07 18:21
  • -5,000 0QZ5 97.50/98.00 call spds 9.0 ref 96.90