AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension
- RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
- RES 3: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16 and key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6701/6806 20-day EMA / High Jun 27
- RES 1: 0.6665 Low Jun 30
- PRICE: 0.6659 @ 15:53 BST Jun 30
- SUP 1: 0.6596 Low June 29
- SUP 2: 0.6579 Low Jun 5
- SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
- SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1
Despite a modest bounce Friday, the overarching outlook for AUDUSD remains soft following recent weakness and the extension of the reversal that started Jun 16. The downleg has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6627, 61.8% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally, has also been cleared and this opens 0.6562 next, the 76.4% retracement point. Key resistance is 0.6900, the Jun 16 high. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6701, the 20-day EMA.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6710 High May 16
- RES 2: 0.6614/66 20- and 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6559/74 High May 30 / Low Apr 28
- PRICE: 0.6470 @ 16:26 BST May 31
- SUP 1: 0.6464 Low May 31
- SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
- SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022
AUDUSD remains bearish and the pair traded lower Wednesday. Price is through last week’s low and this confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 0.6403 Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a breach of 0.6818 is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.6666, the 50-day EMA.
US STOCKS: Only Limited Boost From June Skip Talk, Banks And Energy Stocks Lead Losses
- Talk of skipping a June hike from two FOMC voters helped ESM3 lift further off lows that had been seen after the JOLTS report, a slide that continued despite real yields reversing their initial jump higher on the release.
- Currently at 4190 off an earlier low of 4174, the move sees the contract pull back after yesterday coming just shy of testing resistance at the medium-term bull trigger of 4244 (Feb 2 high), but for now it doesn’t support at the 20-day EMA of 4165.17 after which lies 4114 (May 24 low).
- The S&P e-mini trades broadly inline with the Nasdaq e-mini, both at -0.6% on the day, whilst SPX is led lower by energy (-2.0%) as WTI comes under further pressure, consumer discretionary (-1.4%), and industrials and financials (-1.3%).
- Financials mask larger underperformance for banks, currently underperforming with -2.1%, whilst the separate KBW index shows regionals in particular suffering (KRX -3.5%, BKX -2.4%) after the FDIC said that the number of lenders with weaknesses increased in Q1.
EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective - For Now
- RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
- RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
- RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 151.07 High May 29
- PRICE: 148.88 @ 16:24 BST May 31
- SUP 1: 148.84 Low May 24
- SUP 2: 147.43/146.83 13 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
- SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31
EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Last week’s move higher resulted in a breach of 150.32, 76.4% of the May 2 - 11 sell-off. The break opens 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.43, remains intact and is a key support. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal a reversal. Initial support lies at 148.84, the May 24 low.
