USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Cycle Firms

• Treasuries look to finish near midday highs Tuesday, sentiment improved after a bumpy, headline driven session. TYM6 +11.5 at 111-05.5 after the bell vs. 111-08.5 high, Firm resistance is seen at 111-10+, the 20-day EMA.
• Treasuries blipped higher/retraced following Pres Trump's early tweet re: Iran, Hormuz Straight while urging Europe to "just TAKE IT". Tsys paring gains as DoD Hegseth trying to clarify latest Trump social media posts re: Hormuz Straight - not pulling assets out but allies need to get their own oil. Staff Gen. Dan Caine comment on "destroying Iran missile capabilities" sees rates firm up again.
• Today's headlines about Iranian President Pezeshkian being prepared to end the war (despite being "stale" news) sparked not just a large risk-on market move, it also triggered the largest-ever apparent buying program in NYSE history (going back to at least 1990): 2,329 names, at 12:41pm ET. For context, 2025's biggest buy program came on the April 9 announcement by Pres Trump of a pause on reciprocal tariffs - it saw 2,225 names bought with the S&P rising 9.5% on the day.
• Cross asset roundup: Bbg US$ index extending late lows (BBDXY -6.9 at 1215.50), WTI crude paring gains but inside session range at 101.87, Nasdaq +3.8%, SPX emini +2.8%, DJIA +2.4%.
• LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: ADP, ISM Fed Speak, SCOTUS Oral Arguments

Today's headlines about Iranian President Pezeshkian being prepared to end the war (despite being "stale" news) sparked not just a large risk-on market move, it also triggered the largest-ever apparent buying program in NYSE history (going back to at least 1990): 2,329 names, at 12:41pm ET. 

• For context, 2025's biggest buy program came on the April 9 announcement by Pres Trump of a pause on reciprocal tariffs - it saw 2,225 names bought with the S&P rising 9.5% on the day.

• As noted earlier, the Conference Board's March consumer confidence survey roundly beat expectations on the headline metrics, though the details suggested less positive sentiment.
• The surprise increase to 91.8 (cons 87.9) from 91.0 beat expectations which presumably factored in souring sentiment after the outbreak of war in the Middle East (survey period March 1-24 vs initial US-Israel strikes on Feb 28).
• It sees an impressive first month of consumer confidence data compared to the initial reaction to some historical shocks in recent decades, and certainly fared better than its University of Michigan counterpart in its flash release.
• For now, it has started with a similar lack of adverse impact to that seen in the Russia invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022 although the US’s direct involvement could well weigh further going ahead.
• That could also be true judging by the Conference Board pointing out in its press release of “while not obvious in the headline or its component indexes, the weight of rising costs due to tariff passthrough and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations."