FOREX: Bear Trigger Halts USDJPY Decline, For Now
Feb-12 10:22
- Given the magnitude of the moves since Sunday’s vote in Japan, it is perhaps unsurprising to see USDJPY generate some demand in the low 152’s, with the 3.5% decline in just four sessions falling just shy of 152.10 support, and the technical bear trigger. A solid turnaround from the 152.27 lows prompted a 153.55 session high just ahead of the European open, with the pair subsequently consolidating around the 153 mark. If the price action following yesterday’s US employment report is anything to go by, the pair’s inability to consolidate any meaningful upward momentum could be a sign that further downside is imminent.
- While moderately lower on the session, AUD extended its bullish cycle overnight, with 0.7147 coming within 11pips of the 2023 peak. “The overall picture of [labour market] persistent tightness is important because it is consistent with there still being some inflationary pressure in the economy”, RBA's Hunter said overnight. A renewed push higher for AUDUSD would put sights on 0.7208, a Fibonacci projection.
- Swiss Franc resilience has resumed today, with EURCHF seeing a renewed push back towards 0.9125. USDCHF also edges closer to cycle lows which are located 0.7605, with participants awaiting inflation data from both Switzerland and the US on Friday.
- In emerging markets, EURHUF briefly extended an intraday rally to 0.5%, with weakness for the forint stemming initially from the below-expectations CPI print and then from an EU Court opinion on frozen funds. We flag key short-term resistance at 383.04, the 50-day EMA.
- Today's US data calendar is rather light, with weekly claims and home sales scheduled. Fed's Logan and Miran are set to appear, while a set of ECB speakers is unlikely to move the needle.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put Condor buyer
Jan-13 10:21
ERJ6 98.06/98.00/97.93/97.87p condor, bought up to 4.5 in 15k total.
EQUITY OPTIONS: EU Bank Put Spread
Jan-13 10:21
SX7E (18th Sep) 260/230ps, trades for 8.95 in 12k.
AUSTRIA AUCTION RESULTS: RAGB Results
Jan-13 10:12
| 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB | 3.15% Oct-53 RAGB | |
| ISIN | AT0000A3HU25 | AT0000A33SK7 |
| Amount | E1.495bln | E805mln |
| Previous | E863mln | E575mln |
| Avg yield | 3.044% | 3.794% |
| Previous | 2.891% | 3.742% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.43 | 2.51 |
| Previous | 2.05x | 2.47x |
| Avg Price | 99.257 | 89.046 |
| Low Price | 99.19 | 88.93 |
| Pre-auction mid | 98.976 | 88.804 |
| Prev avg price | 100.465 | 89.830 |
| Prev low price | 100.44 | 89.77 |
| Prev mid-price | 100.104 | 89.482 |
| Previous date | 04-Nov-25 | 07-Oct-25 |
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