EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 162.16 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 158.66/160.98 High Dec 4 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 157.91 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 5
- SUP 1: 156.18 Low Dec 03
- SUP 2: 156.05 Low Sep 17
- SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains in play despite the latest bounce. A number of retracement points have been cleared since the reversal on Oct 31. Most recently, 157.87, 76.4% of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 160.98, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to signal a reversal.
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EGBS: Tight German Ranges In Asia As Event Risks Nears
Bund futures in the middle of a tight 20-tick Asia range, -7 at 131.73.
- Bearish technicals remain intact.
- Support zone at 131.15/00 was not tested during yesterday’s morning sell off.
- To the upside, initial resistance seen at the September 2 low (132.65).
- Core global FI stuck to narrow ranges overnight, with impending U.S. election risk keeping many participants sidelined.
- Comments from ECB’s Schnabel & Vujcic due today, no tier 1 European data.
- That should leave macro headline flow and any last-minute U.S. election setup at the fore.
- In the background note that the German coalition committee will meet tomorrow, as internal government issues remain evident.
- Supply-wise, Austria will hold an RAGB auction to sell a combined EUR1.725bln of the 2.90% Feb-34 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A39UW5) and the 3.15% Jun-44 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A0VRQ6).
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Flag Formation
- RES 4: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 3: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 2: 0.6691 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6648 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6612 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: 0.6537 Low Oct 30
- SUP 2: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.6472 Low Aug 6
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation signal that reinforces the current trend condition. Note that the pair has cleared 0.6576, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. A continuation lower would open 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6648, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Reversal Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 121.53/122.62 High Oct 25 / 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 119.50 @ Close Nov 4
- SUP 1: 118.95 Low Oct 31
- SUP 2: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.16 Low Sep 2 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 117.70 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures maintains a softer tone, The contract traded sharply lower last week resulting in a breach of 119.97, the Oct 11 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and highlights a possible reversal. The move down has exposed 118.64, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 121.53, the Oct 25 high, where a break is required to cancel the bearish threat. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
