PERU: BCRP Buys Further $171mn In Spot Market

• RES 4: 1.3613 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg    
• RES 3: 1.3544 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3527 High Oct 1 and a pivot level
• RES 1: 1.3393/3471 20-day EMA / High Oct 17 and a key resistance  
• PRICE: 1.3328 @ 16:13 GMT Oct 27
• SUP 1: 1.3249 Low Oct 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14           

GBPUSD maintains a softer short-term tone for now. Recent weakness highlights the end of the corrective bounce between Oct 14 - 17. Sights are on key short-term support at 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and a bear trigger. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downleg that has been in place since Sep 17. Key near-term resistance is at 1.3471, the Oct 17 high. A break would signal a possible reversal.               

The data quality concerns of the CPI report (40% "different cell" imputation in the September release before data collection under the government shutdown) will further complicate the Fed’s underlying of latest inflation trends, with a lack of PPI report this month leaving approximately 65% of inputs for PCE inflation in September ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. 

• We have seen median core PCE estimates for September trimmed from ~0.30% M/M prior to CPI to closer to an average ~0.25% M/M since then, albeit from a modest sample.
• The latter covers 0.23% M/M for Nomura (revised down from 0.30% pre-CPI), 0.26% M/M for Barclays (revised down from 0.31% pre-CPI), 0.26% M/M for Deutsche Bank (revised down from 0.32% pre-CPI) and 0.26% M/M for TD Securities.
• If accurate, it points to near enough the same monthly pace as the 0.23% M/M in August and 0.24% M/M in July.
• A 0.25% M/M print and no revisions would see core PCE inflation at 2.9% Y/Y for a third consecutive month (2.88% Y/Y). Similar three- and six-month run rates of 2.9% and 2.8% annualized respectively would suggest there is still some acceleration needed to be seen to meet the median FOMC forecast of 3.1% Y/Y in 4Q25. 

RRP usage climbs to $10.642B with 13 counterparties this afternoon from $2.435B Friday (lowest level since mid-March 2021). Compares to this year's high usage of $460.731B on June 30.