MEXICO: Banxico Releases Minutes of February MPC Meeting

A reminder that it is possible that the US Supreme Court could release its ruling on the legality of the White House's IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) tariffs from 10am ET onward, though of course we don't know what opinions SCOTUS is releasing in advance (the last 2 opinion days have come and gone without a tariff case ruling). There is no media embargo for any opinions issued by the Supreme Court and there is no livestream of proceedings; we will be following the release of opinions via Scotusblog's liveblog (link).

• Reminder the first order question is whether it will favor upholding the tariffs (prediction markets see a one-in-three chance the justices will allow them to stand) but there are many permutations, for example striking them down completely and ordering the government to pay refunds retroactively, or allowing the existing revenues to remain but not allow future IEEPA tariffs to be collected.
• The Trump administration plans to begin replacing tariffs with other levies if the Supreme Court finds Trump’s use of IEEPA unlawful.
• If there is no opinion issued today, it would look increasingly likely that a decision may have to wait until at least late February.

• RES 4: 7089.25 1.000 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing  
• RES 3: 7080.92 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 7036.74 0.764 proj of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing
• RES 1: 6954.51/7036.25 20-day EMA / High Jan 13 and bull trigger   
• PRICE: 6876.50 @ 14:33 GMT Jan 21
• SUP 1: 6846.75 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 6809.62 50.0% retracement of the Nov 21 - Jan 13 bull phase 
• SUP 3: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 6756.14 61.8% retracement of the Nov 21 - Jan 13 bull phase 

The trend structure in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. However, the contract has traded through support at 6901.43, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper corrective pullback. This has exposed support at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 7036.25, Jan 13 high.

• +20,000 SFRM8 96.505, buy through 96.50 post time offer at 0926:02ET, DV01 $500,000.
• The Green Jun'28 contract trades 96.50 last (+0.00)