EM ASIA CREDIT: Bangkok Bank (BBLTB): new USD deal priced

Spot USD/CNH couldn't test under 7.1200 in Monday trade, keeping recent lows intact, but the bias for the pair remains skewed lower (albeit a slow moving one, rather than a sharp drop). A renewed test under 7.1000 is likely to be the medium term focus point, while moves back towards the 50-day EMA (near 7.1415) should draw selling interest. We track near 7.1230 in early Tuesday dealings, while spot USD/CNY ended Monday's session at 7.1215, leaving little CNH-CNY basis. The CNY CFETS basket tracker edged up to 97.195, its first gain in 3 sessions. 

• Focus remains on the Nov 1 tariff deadline. The threat of higher tariffs from the US remains, although US President Trump stated overnight: “I think when we finish our meetings in South Korea, China and I will have a really fair and really great trade deal together,” Trump told reporters at the White House." (via BBG). Per Polymarket, odds off a 100% tariff rate by Nov sit just under 7, so quite low.   
• Elsewhere, markets are still digesting yesterday's Q3 GDP report and Sep activity dump. Viewpoints are mixed on whether we see further stimulus before year end. There are clearly softer parts of the economy in terms of housing and consumption, but IP and exports are holding up and first half growth should deliver the 5% growth target. Any policy moves may be targeted and aimed at specific weak points in the economy.
• Our China policy team noted: China’s Loan Prime Rate is likely to be lowered following a possible 10-basis-point policy rate cut later this year, as the economy faces stronger headwinds and further U.S. Federal Reserve easing reduces external constraints, while via BBG: "Citigroup no longer expects policy rate or RRR cuts in 4Q, “given real GDP growth so far.”
• The local data calendar just has Sep FDI figures due by the end of this week. Tomorrow FX settlement figures are out for Sep.

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 Treasury Bond. The line was last sold on 23 September 2025 for A$300mn. Several key factors will likely shape investor demand at today’s auction: 

• The bond’s outright yield is 20-25bps lower than the previous auction and is around 30bps below the peak reached in May.
• Sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds has improved recently, which may add to demand.
• Moreover, the 10s/30s yield curve is back near its steepest level since 2021 — a potentially supportive technical factor.
• Overall, pricing is expected to remain firm, underpinned by a stable yield profile and a more attractive curve backdrop.
• Results are due at 0100 BST / 1100 AEST.

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 Treasury Bond. The line was last sold on 23 September 2025 for A$300mn. The sale drew an average yield of 5.0141%, at a high yield of 5.0175% and was covered 3.3500x. There were 54 bidders, 16 of which were successful and 10 were allocated in full. The amount allotted at the highest yield as a percentage of the bid at that yield was 91.7%.

• This week's ACGB supply is near the top of the recent weekly issuance range of $1500-2200mn, with A$900mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 bond on Friday.
• During the first half of 2025-26, the AOFM plans to: issue a new October 2036 Treasury Bond (by syndication and subject to market conditions); conduct 2 Treasury Bond tenders most weeks; hold 1-2 Treasury Indexed Bond tenders each month.
• Issuance of Treasury Bonds (including Green Treasury Bonds) in 2025-26 is expected to be around $150 billion. Issuance of Treasury Indexed Bonds in 2025-26 is expected to be between $2 billion and $3 billion. 
• Results are due at 0200 BST / 1100 AEST.