EU FINANCIALS: Aviva Reaches a Deal to Buy Direct Line
Dec-06 07:50
*AVIVA REACHES PRELIMINARY DEAL TO BUY DIRECT LINE AT 275P/SHARE
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STIR: Dovish Move In GBP STIRs As Trump Spill Over Eyed
Nov-06 07:44
GBP STIRs see dovish moves, looking to the potential growth-negative impact of U.S. President Trump’s policy preferences.
- ~23bp of cuts priced for tomorrow, 31.5bp through year-end, 61bp through March and 78.5bp through June.
- SONIA futures rally 0.5-6.0.
- Focus will remain on cross-market impetus post-U.S. election.
- Nothing of note on the UK calendar today.
- Next domestic risk event is tomorrow’s BoE decision.
- All 54 names surveyed by BBG look for a 25bp cut.
- BMO the only sell-side name (that we have seen) looking for no change.
- Budget uncertainty may increase BoE caution surrounding further easing and could lead to 3 dissents against a cut at this meeting.
- We think there is a good chance of higher-than-expected inflation forecast.
- Click for our full preview.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Nov-24 | 4.723 | -22.7 |
Dec-24 | 4.635 | -31.6 |
Feb-25 | 4.440 | -51.0 |
Mar-25 | 4.343 | -60.8 |
May-25 | 4.201 | -74.9 |
Jun-25 | 4.165 | -78.5 |
Aug-25 | 4.107 | -84.3 |
Sep-25 | 4.098 | -85.2 |
Nov-25 | 4.071 | -87.9 |
Dec-25 | 4.065 | -88.5 |
BONDS: Tnotes/Bund spread widest since May
Nov-06 07:42
- Bund is through session high, big size going through as Europe joins the session.
The price action is pushing the Tnotes/Bund spread clear through 200.00bps, widest level since May, over 18bps wider. - The next area of interest in the spread would be up to 209.6bps.
- Resistance in Bund is seen towards 132.37.
GILT SYNDICATION: DMO To Re-open 1.25% 2054 Linker At November Syndication
Nov-06 07:38
From the DMO:
- "The United Kingdom Debt Management Office (DMO) announces that the fifth transaction of the 2024-25 syndication programme will be a re-opening of 1 1/4% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2054.
- "The transaction is planned to take place in the week commencing 25 November 2024, subject to demand and market conditions. Further details of this transaction, including the appointment of the syndicate, will be announced in due course".
