EUROPEAN INFLATION: Austria Stats Office: "Massive" Package Holiday Prices
May-02 08:17
Austrian HICP increased to 3.3% Y/Y in April (3.1% prior) amid a 0.3% M/M print, while the national CPI measure came in at 3.1% Y/Y in April (vs 2.9% in March, 0.2% M/M).
- "The increase is mainly due to the fact that prices for package holidays have risen massively compared to April last year, as the Easter holidays and school holidays fell in April this year", Statistics Austria comments - while Easter Effects were expected for the whole Eurozone, the stress the statistics office puts on the magnitude of the effect is notable.
- This brought services CPI inflation to 4.8% Y/Y in Austria, up from 4.2% in March, and suggests that a reversal in the category should be possible in May.
- Additionally, the comment could be one sign that Easter Effects were stronger than expected overall in the Eurozone this month amid core HICP tracking higher than consensus.
- Elsewhere, energy decelerated by 1.5pp to 0.7% Y/Y ("significantly lower fuel prices largely compensated for the effects of higher electricity prices"), and food / alcohol / tobacco inflation came in at 3.2% Y/Y (unchanged from March).
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EGBS: Citi Retain Long Duration Bias Into Tariff Announcement, Eye IRISH In MT
Apr-02 08:11
Citi note that “even after adjusting for fiscal spending, Bunds lag by around 15bp on a regression with a basket of tariff-sensitive EUR equities”.
- They go on to write “into today’s tariff announcement, we prefer bullish/dovish exposure to EUR duration. For EGB spreads, the indifference towards richening Bund swap spreads has tended to be short-lived in the past”.
- “The recent EGB resilience might have been driven by relatively clean positioning, investors waiting for more clarity and prospects of more ECB rate cuts in case of punitive tariffs but ignores their growth implications.”
- As a result, they “retain bearish exposure to periphery spreads into the announcement, with the 10-Year BTP/Bund spread now close to the tight end of its range”.
- At a more granular level, they note that “tariff risks within EMU-11 seem most acute for Germany, Italy, and Ireland while Spain and France seem relatively shielded. This was likely behind the YtD underperformance of IRISH credit, which continued yesterday, despite still-strong fundamentals otherwise. These headwinds are likely to persist for now, although we believe value in the Irish credit is being built for the medium-term”.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Apr-02 07:59
Of note:
EURUSD ~1bn at 1.0800.
EURUSD 2.3bn at 1.0800 (thu).
USDJPY 1.19bn at 150.00 (thu).
EURUSD 1.53bn at 1.0800 (fri).
USDCAD 1.19bn at 1.4350 (fri).
AUDUSD ~1bn at 0.6300 (fri).
AUDUSD 1.43bn at 0.6350 (tue).
- EURUSD: 1.0700 (1.11bn), 1.0750 (525mln), 1.0790 (362mln), 1.0800 (972mln).
- USDJPY: 149.80 (278mln), 149.95 (299mln).
- USDCAD: 1.4300 (307mln), 1.4350 (425mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5775 (427mln).
OPTIONS: Expiries for Apr02 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Apr-02 07:54
- EUR/USD: $1.0790-00(E1.9bln)
- USD/JPY: Y149.80-95($577mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3780($1.1bln), C$1.4400-15($924mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.3500($1.3bln)
