MNI EXCLUSIVE: Australia: ABS senior official interview

• Liquidity is likely to be constrained today with the UK out for a bank holiday (UK markets are the only notable European markets that are closed). And we also have Chinese markets closed Mon-Wed, Hong Kong closed today, Singapore closed today/tomorrow and then Japan will be out Tues-Thurs.
• The main focus in the European morning session will be on the PMIs. Most notably, we will receive the first releases from Sweden, Spain, Italy and Norway as well as final releases from France, Germany and the Eurozone aggregate. We will also see the release of Eurozone confidence data (economic, industrial and services will all be first prints with consumer confidence the final print).
• In the US session we will receive the final print of the S&P PMI and construction data for March but the main highlight will be the release of ISM manufacturing data. The prices paid (and to a lesser extent employment) component will be closely watched in particular.
• Looking ahead, it's a big week for central banks with the DM highlights the RBA meeting overnight tonight, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the Norges Bank and BOE meetings, both on Thursday.

Goldman Sachs note that “to reflect the changes to our USD forecasts vs other major currencies, we revise our USD/CNY forecasts to CNY6.75, CNY6.55 and CNY6.40, respectively (from CNY6.35, CNY6.30 and CNY6.30 previously) on 3-, 6- and 12-month horizons. These forecast changes imply around a 1.5% weakening of the CNY on trade weighted basis over the next three months, followed by appreciation later on. We think there is scope for slightly further upside in USD/CNY over the near-term, given uncertainties around the local COVID situation and weaker growth outlook. However, over the next six months, we think CNY will resume its appreciation path given that economic activity in China should pick-up in light of policy support (just reiterated at the Politburo meeting), potential easing of domestic anti-pandemic measures after the National Party Congress due October/November, a possible resumption of positive bond flows, and less USD strength than we’ve seen in recent weeks. A gradual recovery and our expectation of border reopening in 2023 should also temper the BOP surplus; as a result, we have adjusted our 12-month forecast higher (though we still see the Yuan on an appreciation path over this horizon).”