FOREX: AUD and NZD Falter With Weaker Equities

• CHINA PBOC DOESN'T CONDUCT OPEN MARKET OPERATION WEDS

The NASDAQ(NQM6) contract overnight range was 27818.25 - 28247.00, NDX closed +1.31%(fig.1). It is currently trading 28290, +0.55% in Asia. The futures have opened strongly on the Asian open thanks to Trump adding tailwinds to an already strong market thanks to strong earnings from both AMD and Supermicro. Big Tech and the AI build out continue to carry the hopes of the equity market with it, but as of now they continue to deliver and so the market pushes higher. On the day, initial support is back toward 27500-27800 and then the 26500-27000 area below that. The Bulls will be loving the price action, and all this with a war raging, a global Oil supply shock and US yields reaching worrying levels. Technically you can’t argue with the price action and the bulls will be looking for this to continue to build higher.

• Milk Road AI on X: “AMD just delivered one of the best earnings reports in the company's history. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $10.3 billion, up 38% year over year, beating a consensus that was already elevated after a monster Q4. Data center revenue surged 57% year over year, blowing past the $5.56 billion estimate that Wall Street considered a high bar. Q2 guidance came in at $11.2 billion, a full $700 million above the $10.52 billion consensus and Lisa Su told investors that customer forecasts for the MI450 Series and Helios are already exceeding AMD's own initial expectations.” https://x.com/MilkRoadAI/status/2051766884396351630?s=20
• Daily Chartbook on X: "AI investment is still adding capacity and supporting near term growth, but the bang for each capex buck is starting to fade — and the pressure is likely to build, ultimately raising the bar for monetization."-JPMorgan See Fig.1 Below.
• Andreas Steno Larsen on X: “The easy part of the trade is over now, as there is no longer a risk premium related to the war, which was evidently there and huge in size during March. The next legs of this trade will be a little less uniform and more about finding the right expressions.” See Fig.2 Below 
• The NASDAQ Index Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 366 Points

Fig 1: AI Capex Rising As Is Pricing Pressures

Source: MNI - Market News/@dailychartbook

Fig 1: South Korea Exports vs Semiconductor ETF

Source: MNI - Market News/Steno Research

The USD/CNY fix printed at 6.8562, versus a BBG consensus of 6.8167. This is a fresh low in the fixing for this cycle, although the error term did re-widen to +395pips from +182pips on Apr 30 (the last fixing prior to the Labor Day break period). USD/CNH is softer in the first part of Wednesday dealings, last near 6.8200. Session lows rest at 6.8187, although we haven't seen much further downside post the fixing outcome. Focus will be on the onshore spot open shortly. Broader USD sentiment is faltering amid a better regional equity tone and lower oil prices. Trump posted earlier around progress on a US-Iran deal, but we haven't seen any more details.