US DATA: Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker At Recent Lows But Still At 4% Y/Y

• A relatively subdued session for foreign exchange has allowed the greenback to consolidate its most recent recovery from multi-year trendline support, with the DXY hovering around 1.25% above the July 01 cycle lows.
• EURUSD tilts lower on the session, with the pair slipping back to the 1.1700 handle. The latest pullback in appears corrective, given the underlying bullish trend condition. Note too that corrections have been shallow so far, reinforcing the trend condition. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1646, the 20-day EMA.
• NZDUSD has also consolidated its recent pull lower, having printed below 0.5980 overnight following the RBNZ’s decision to hold the OCR at 3.25%. The pair continues to exert pressure on the 50-day EMA, of which spot has not closed below since April 09. Continued weakness would signal scope for a move towards 0.5883 and 0.5847 (double bottom seen in mid-May and an important pivot level).
• AUDNZD has also extended its recovery to a seven-week high above 1.0900. Trendline support drawn from the April lows has helped underpin the latest bounce for the cross, targeting 1.0922 (May 15 high) initially, before the early April highs just above 1.10.
• Separately, USDJPY is a touch lower on Wednesday, having notably reversed from the overnight highs of 147.18 and tracking around 146.45 as we approach the APAC crossover. USDJPY has lost all downside momentum for now and trending back towards the upper bound if its broader 142.00 - 148.00 range. The Market is long JPY and should the USD manage to extend its correction higher, this will further challenge the conviction of Yen longs.
• Thursday’s data calendar is highlighted by US jobless claims, before the focus turns to Canadian employment data on Friday.

Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News reporting on X that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) "just reiterated he is in favor of Congress putting new sanctions on Russia." As the package has overwhelming support in the Senate, Johnson's approval would release the bill for consideration on the House floor, likely setting up passage to President Donald Trump's desk. 

• The Russia sanctions bill, introduced by Senators Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), would impose punitive sanctions if Moscow refuses to negotiate with Ukraine, including a 500% secondary tariff on goods imported from countries that buy Russian oil and gas.
• Trump told reporters yesterday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is, "very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless." Trump said of Graham’s sanctions bill: “...it’s totally at my option and I’m looking at it strongly”.
• Graham said that Trump told him “it’s time to move so we’re going to move,” on sanctions. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said he’ll make an announcement soon on when the Senate will take up the bill.
• The bill is unlikely to hit the Senate this week but could come before the chamber ahead of the August recess, if an agreement is struck with the White House on language clarifying Trump's discretion on deploying sanctions and tariffs.
• The primary concern for the White House is likely how to calibrate secondary tariffs without increasing tensions with China and India – the two biggest buyers of Russian hydrocarbons.

• Treasury futures are holding at midday highs (TYU5 +9.5 at 111-02.5) ahead of the $39B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CNC1) at the top of the hour, WI currently 4.367%, 5.4bp cheap to last month's stop.
• June auction recap: Treasury futures add slightly to gains (TYU5 +13.5 at 110-20, 4.4203% yld) after the $39B 10Y note auction re-open (91282CNC1) stopped .9bp through: drawing 4.421% high yield vs. 4.430% WI; 2.52x bid-to-cover vs. 2.60x prior.
• Peripheral stats: indirect take-up retreated to 70.56% vs. 71.19% prior; direct bidder take-up at 20.48% from 19.88% prior; primary dealer take-up 8.96% vs. 8.93% prior.
• The next 10Y auction (open) is tentatively scheduled for August 6.