JPY: Asia-Pac: USD/JPY Challenging 154.00 Again After Turnaround In Risk
The USD/JPY range today has been 153.45 - 154.03 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 153.95, +0.35%. The pair initially gapped higher on the Asian open as reports of a potential deal on the US shutdown made the rounds; it has continued to build on these initial gains as these reports of Dems crossing the aisle have been confirmed. USD/JPY found solid demand around the 153.00 area on Friday again, this positive scenario returns the focus back toward the 154-155 area resistance area once more. A sustained break above is needed to potentially see the uptrend regain upward momentum, the focus would then turn toward the 160 area where I would start to become wary of intervention risks.
- "JAPAN PM TAKAICHI: NOT RULING OUT SALES TAX CUT AS OPTION IN FUTURE, BUT IMMEDIATE PRIORITY IS TO COMPILE PACKAGE OF STEPS TO CUSHION BLOW FROM RISING COST OF LIVING, CHANGING SALES TAX RATE WOULD TAKE TIME, SO DECISION ON WHETHER TO DO SO WOULD NEED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WAGE, INFLATION LEVELS AT THE TIME - [RTRS]"
- MNI: BOJ board members largely agreed on the need to raise the policy interest rate eventually, but saw no urgency to act at the Oct 29-30 meeting, preferring to confirm sustained wage momentum and the firmness of underlying inflation, according to the summary of opinions released Monday.
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : none - BBG.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
