ITALY DATA: April Manufacturing PMI: Better Than Feared, But Still Contraction
May-02 07:53
In contrast to Spain, the Italian manufacturing PMI was stronger-than-expected at 49.3 (vs 47.0 cons...
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STIR: Over 60bp Of ECB Cuts Priced Through Dec Ahead Of Tariff Announcements
Apr-02 07:48
Tariff worry ahead of the impending “Liberation Day” announcements from the White House limit any hawkish pullbacks in EUR STIRs and EGBs.
- Euribor futures flat to +2.0 as a result.
- ’25 ECB meeting-dated OIS little changed to a couple of bp more dovish on the day, showing ~19.5bp of cuts for this month, 36.5bp through June and 62.5bp through year-end.
- A reminder that the market expects the ECB to be more reactive to any downside growth shocks emanating from U.S. tariffs than upside inflation outcomes. Recent ECB communique has done little to push back against that assumption.
- Appearances from ECB’s Schnabel, Lane, Holzmann and Escriva are scheduled today. Note that Lane will moderate a panel the Bank’s AI conference, so don’t expect too much in the way of direct monetary policy comments from him.
- Little of note on the Eurozone data calendar, which will leave focus on U.S. tariff decisions and data for much of the session.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Apr-25 | 2.226 | -19.4 |
Jun-25 | 2.056 | -36.4 |
Jul-25 | 1.982 | -43.8 |
Sep-25 | 1.875 | -54.5 |
Oct-25 | 1.840 | -58.0 |
Dec-25 | 1.794 | -62.6 |
SONIA: Call spread buyer
Apr-02 07:44
SFIZ5 96.75/97.25cs, bought for 3.75 in 2k.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put spread strip vs call
Apr-02 07:42
ERJ5 with ERK5 97.75/97.6875ps vs 98.00c, bought the ps strip for half in 2k.
