THAILAND: Anutin Confirmed For Second Term As Prime Minister

European Council President António Costa will visit Oslo for talks with PM Jonas Gahr Støre on Thursday, 19 Feb. Following the talks, the two will hold a presser at 13:15CET (07:15ET, 12:15GMT). These talks come amid speculation regarding the prospect of closer ties developing between Norway and the EU, given US President Donald Trump's focus on security in the High North. Norway has previously rejected EU membership in a referendum. 

• Trump's belligerent stance towards demanding US territorial command of Greenland has raised concerns in NATO member states that the US is no longer a reliable partner. Trump's comments disparaging the Article 5 collective defence clause and raising doubts about the reliability of NATO allies have only reinforced these concerns.
• Daniel Hegedüs of The German Marshall Fund of the United States think-tank in Berlin notes in Norway "a shift away from predominantly domestic considerations toward arguments framing the EU as an existential geopolitical and security anchor..."
• Security experts have increasingly warned that Norway's Arctic archipelago of Svalbard is a key vulnerability. Governed by a unique treaty from WWI, there have been Russian settlements on the islands for over a century. However, as noted in The Spectator, it could play a key geostrategic role for Moscow: "Svalbard controls the Bear Gap, the chokepoint that Russian submarines must cross to reach the Atlantic. It is the gateway to Russia’s submarine bases on the Kola Peninsula, and in a war could be critical for protecting its nuclear deterrent."
• While the Labour gov't has not signalled any intent to alter its stance on the EU, the opposition pro-EU Conservatives under new leader Ine Eriksen Søreide are looking to re-open the debate. 

JPM:

• WNA: Bearish.
• USA: Neutral.
• UXY: Mildly Bearish.
• TYA: Mildly Bearish.
• FVA: Mildly Bearish.
• TUA: Mildly Bearish.
• Gilt: Bullish.

Barclays:

• Gilt: Neutral.

They add that their analysis sees front positioning not too skewed in either side to support that view.

The Gilt curve has lightly bull flattened, with yields 3.0-3.8bps lower across the curve. UK labour market data, alongside overnight cues in USTs and JGBs, have set the tone this morning. The 10-year segment outperforms, with yields down 3.8bps to 4.361%. 10-year benchmark yields have notably pierced trendline support drawn from the November 2022 highs. A clear breach of this trendline would expose the Jan 14 low at 4.336%

• Gilt futures are +37 ticks at 92.29, aiming to retest opening highs of 92.32. Initial resistance is the Jan 19 high at 92.51.
• Soft developments on the quantities side of the UK labour market keeps a BOE March cut firmly in play. However, markets are cognizant that the January inflation reading is still to come tomorrow, and there is still another labour market report due before the March 19 decision.
• The DMO will hold two tenders today, selling GBP500mln of the 0.125% Jan-28 Gilt at 1000GMT and GBP750mln of the 4.25% Jun-32 Gilt at 1130GMT.

Figure 1: 10-year Gilt yields (Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P)