FOREX: Antipodean Wrap - AUD & NZD holding onto gains

ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM -7.5) are weaker but mid-range on a data-light session.

• “Australia has failed to secure an exemption from US steel and aluminum tariffs despite Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government's lobbying efforts. Albanese called the tariffs "entirely unjustified" and "economic self-harm" on the part of the US, but said Australia would not take reciprocal measures and would instead work to diversify exports.” (per BBG)
• Cash US bonds are flat to 2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. The February CPI report is the highlight of today’s US session, while some attention will be paid to the BoC which is expected to deliver a 25bp cut.
• Cash ACGBs are 5-8bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +18bps.
• Swap rates are 5-8bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
• The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -5.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in April is given an 8% probability, with a cumulative 65bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Melbourne Institute inflation expectations for March. The previous month they jumped 0.6pp to 4.6%, the highest since November 2023.

Oil prices have continued rising during today’s APAC session driven by reduced excess supply expectations. WTI is 0.7% higher at $66.72/bbl after falling to $66.49 before rising to $66.84. Brent is up 0.7% to $70.03/bbl after an intraday low of $69.79 and a high of $70.13. The USD index is up 0.2%.

• OPEC’s March monthly report is published today with the IEA’s on Thursday. OPEC’s forecasts tend to be more optimistic. On Tuesday, the US’ EIA revised down its global excess supply expectations for both 2025 and 2026 due to the projected impact of tighter sanctions and enforcement on Iran and Venezuela.
• The supply outlook remains highly uncertain though with it still unclear if Iran and Venezuela will find ways to evade sanctions and if there will be an easing of restrictions on Russia. The US administration is also planning to increase US production, while higher tariffs have raised uncertainty around global demand substantially.
• The US 30-day ceasefire proposal will now be presented to Russia following Ukraine’s readiness to agree but Russia has said that it will only approve it on its own terms and not the US’. If it refuses, President Trump has threatened more sanctions and also tariffs on the country.
• Bloomberg reported that US crude inventories rose 4.2mn barrels last week after a drawdown the previous week, according to people familiar with the API data. Gasoline stocks were down 4.6mn while distillate rose 400k. The official EIA data is out later today.
• US CPI for February is out later (see MNI CPI Preview) and forecast to show a 0.1pp moderation in headline and core to 2.9% y/y and 3.2% y/y respectively. February budget and real earnings data are also released. The BoC decision is announced and it is forecast to cut rates 25bp. The ECB’s Lagarde and Lane speak.