US DATA: Another Trade Surprise But Goods Deficit Is Still Smallest Since 1990s
Jan-29 19:13
Volatility remained rife in trade data for back in November, with the goods & services deficit surpr...
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US TSYS: Post-FOMC Minutes React
Dec-30 19:01
- Treasury futures show little reaction to the FOMC minutes release for the December meeting, holding modest losses, near midrange for the day
- Currently, TYH6 trades 112-20 (-3.0) vs. 112-17 low / 112-25.5 high, curves mixed: 2s10s at 66.528 +1.165, 5s30s -.381 at 112.333.
- Trend theme remains bearish and a break of 111-29 would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This would open 111-19, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112-31, the Dec 18 high, where a break would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.
- Bloomberg US$ index firmer: BBDXY +1.25 at 1202.72
MNI: MOST SAW FURTHER CUTS IF INFLATION DECLINES - FED MINUTES
Dec-30 19:00
- MOST SAW FURTHER CUTS IF INFLATION DECLINES - FED MINUTES
- SOME WANT RATES UNCHANGED FOR SOME TIME AFTER DECEMBER
- PARTICIPANTS EXPRESSED RANGE OF VIEWS ON RESTRICTIVENESS
- PARTICIPANTS JUDGED CAREFUL BALANCING OF RISKS REQUIRED
- PARTICIPANTS SEE ELEVATED NEAR-TERM PRICES, RETURN TO 2%
- MOST SEE LABOR MARKET RISKS TILTED TO DOWNSIDE
SOFR OPTIONS: SOFR Put Strip & Midcurve Vol Sales
Dec-30 18:55
Modest tone change from better low delta put buying earlier: put strip seller and midcurve vol seller via straddles ahead of the Dec'26 FOMC minutes release
- -1,000 SFRU6/SFRZ6/SFRH7/SFRM7 95.00 put strip, 6.0 total
- -2,000 0QH6 96.93 straddles, 28.0 ref 96.925
- -1,000 0QF6 96.93 straddles, 14.0 ref 96.925
