EM LATAM CREDIT: America Movil: 4Q25 Earnings Solid – Neutral
(AMXLMM; Baa1/A-/A-)
• A solid quarter with Revenues up 3% and EBITDA 4% higher YoY. The company used existing cash plus free cash flow to reduce debt by MXN20bn in 2025 leaving net debt/EBITDA at a reported 1.52x vs 1.55x the previous quarter and 1.44x Q4 2024. No change to the credit profile from these results.
• AMXLMM 35s were quoted G-Spd 81bp, 7bp tighter YTD and 6bp tighter since Sept. 30, 2025. That compares to Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF; A3neg/A-/A) 35s at 77bp G-Spd and Gruma (GRUMAB; NR/BBB+/BBB+) Dec 34s at 93bp G-Spd and Southern Copper (SCCO; Baa1/BBB+/BBB+) 35s at 89 G-Spd.
• Mobile subscriber growth was low single digits for most of LATAM and 2.7% overall YoY, though Argentina and Colombia outperformed at +5.7% and +4.2% respectively. Fixed line growth was also sluggish at 1.8% YoY with standouts being Ecuador at +29% and Argentina at 12%. Broadband growth was 5.6% YoY
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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Stocks Still Can't Be Held Down
- Stocks have recovered from the bout of morning selling, major indexes in the green as they currently extend record highs: the DJIA is currently up 15.42 points (0.03%) at 49,519.76 (49,543.79 record high), S&P E-Mini Future up 12.75 points (0.18%) at 7,017.75 (7,019.00 record), Nasdaq up 116.5 points (0.5%) at 23,788.83 (23,797.45).
- A mix of IT, Materials and Health Care sector shares alternately led advances AND declines in late trade.
- On the positive side: Dexcom +6.78%, , Albemarle Corp +4.85%, Western Digital +4.67%, Vistra Corp +4.66%, Akamai Technologies +4.66%, Seagate Technology +4.37%, Freeport-McMoRan +3.93%, Amphenol +3.90%, Teradyne +3.62% and Newmont +3.54%.
- Leading decliners included: Synchrony Financial -8.74%, Capital One Financial -6.45%, ON Semiconductor -5.43%, Moderna -5.16%, Baxter International -4.37%, American Express -4.23%, Baker Hughes -3.70%, QUALCOMM -3.67%, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals -3.66% and Citigroup -3.57%.
- Reminder, the next earnings cycle kicks off in earnest this week with Bank of NY Mellon, JPM reporting on Tuesday January 13, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs, Blackrock and Morgan Stanley on Thursday.
USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 158.87 High Jan 10 ‘25 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
- RES 1: 158.20 High Jan 12
- PRICE: 158.15 @ 17:25 GMT Jan 12
- SUP 1: 156.50/155.35 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 154.35 Low Dec 5 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 153.62 Low Nov 14
- SUP 4: 152.82 Low Nov 7
Friday’s climb in USDJPY reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair traded to a fresh trend high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 158.29, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Support to watch lies at 155.35, the 50-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: ADP Wkly, CPI, New Home Sales, 30Y Re-Open
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 01/13 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (99.0, 99.4)
- 01/13 0815 ADP Weekly NER Pulse
- 01/13 0830 CPI MoM (0.3 est), YoY (2.7%, 2.7%)
- 01/13 0830 Core CPI MoM (0.3% est), YoY (2.6%, 2.7%)
- 01/13 0855 Redbook Retail Sales Index
- 01/13 1000 New Home Sales (715k est), MoM (-10.6% est)
- 01/13 1000 StL Fed Musalem outlook, Q&A event hosted by MNI
- 01/13 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
- 01/13 1300 US Tsy $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810UP1)
- 01/13 1400 Treasury Budget
- 01/13 1600 Richmond Fed Tom Barkin moderated discussion
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
