US TSYS: All Eyes on FED, Risks Mount for Hawkish Tilt

• RES 4: 1.1825 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg  
• RES 3: 1.1796 High Mar 2 
• RES 2: 1.1746 50.0% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg   
• RES 1: 1.1590/1660 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 1.1513 @ 06:05 GMT Mar 30
• SUP 1: 1.1485/11 Low Mar 23 / Low Mar 13 & 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1373 1.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1340 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing 

A bearish trend theme in EURUSD remains intact and recent short-term gains appear to have been corrective. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1590, has been pierced but remains intact - for now. A more important resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1660. A confirmed breach of this EMA would signal a stronger reversal. The bear trigger lies at 1.1411, the Mar 13 and 16 low. Clearance of this support would resume the downtrend.

The US 10-Yr future maintained gains Monday and is currently up +10 at 110-15.  Having reached a high earlier of 110-16 the rally showed signs of easing only to consolidates at these levels.  

Cash is strong with yields down -2.5-4.5bps with the 5-10Yrs outperforming in what appears more like profit taking on existing shorts, rather than a change in sentiment.  

• The 2-Yr is down -3.3bps at 3.881%
• The 5-Yr is down -4.4bps at 4.028%
• The 10-Yr is down -4bps at 4.392%
• The 30-Yr is down -2.7bps at 4.941%

Looking ahead to Monday in the US, there is a US$89bn 13-week and a US$77bn 26-week auction for markets to absorb.  

Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 10:30 AM ET. He is participating in a moderated discussion at a Harvard University economics class.  xpect questions on how the Fed plans to handle the Middle East Energy Shock and whether the current target for 2026 rate cuts is being officially pushed back or even reversed.  Williams speaks later in the day on financial stability and liquidity.  

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for March is the key data release.  

• RES 4: 127.20 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 126.84/85 50-day EMA / High Mar 18 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 126.17 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 125.02/126.Low Mar 34 / 11 High Mar 25            
• PRICE: 124.74 @ 05:41 GMT Mar 30 
• SUP 1: 124.25 Low Mar 27      
• SUP 2: 124.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 123.86 1.618 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 123.59 1.764 proj of the Mar 10 - 13 - 18 price swing

Trend signals in Bund futures remain bearish and last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces current conditions. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on the 124.00 handle next, a Fibonacci projection point. Short-term gains would be considered corrective, initial firm resistance is at 126.11, the Mar 25 high.