EU FINANCIALS: AIA Group: H125 Results Headlines             

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $66.60 @ 06:27 BST Jul 22 
• SUP 1: $65.68/64.00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Jun 24 still appears corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.74. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3402.8 - High Jul 21           
• PRICE: 3385.3 @ 07:25 BST Jul 22 
• SUP 1: $3342.3 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30 remains intact, and Monday’s bullish start to the week marks an extension of the recovery. $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, has been pierced. A continuation would open $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. An initial firm support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.

Yesterday’s notable rally in Bund futures resulted in a move through resistance around the 50-day EMA (131.22 today). A clear break of the EMA would undermine the recent bear theme and highlight a possible reversal. This would open 130.76 initially, the Jul 4 high. Initial support is yesterday’s 129.73 low, which shields key support and the bear trigger at 129.08 (Jul 14 low).

• This morning’s price action has been tilted to the downside, following another contained overnight range. Futures are currently -10 at 130.35.
• A higher-than-expected UK PSNB reading (GBP20.7bln vs GBP17.5bln cons) will have contributed to early pressure, leaving focus on the Gilt open at 0800BST.
• Despite yesterday’s bull flattening across core FI curves, the JGB curve twist steepened overnight, with 2-year yields now down 1bps and 40-year yields up 1.5bps. This was the first opportunity for domestic bond markets to react to Sunday’s Upper House election, following Monday’s public holiday.
• Japan PM Ishiba faces a period of significant political uncertainty following the poor performance of the governing coalition, and today’s twist steepening comes with 40-year supply and BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida scheduled tomorrow, keeping long-end yields underpinned.
• Germany will kick off EGB issuance for the week this morning with a Green auction. On offer will be E500mln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund alongside E1bln of the 2.50% Feb-35 Green Bund.
• The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey is due at 0900BST, while French June retail sales are also due today.