EU COMMUNICATIONS: CK Hutchison: M&A Context   

Treasuries have pared small further gains overnight over the past two hours as US desks start to filter in. Cumulative overnight volumes have been very thin ahead of an important docket that sees the November payrolls report and October retail sales as well as flash PMIs for December and the latest weekly ADP update to main a few other releases. 

• Cash yields are 0-0.5bp higher on the day.
• 5s30s earlier hit 113.4bp for a fresh three-month high, currently at 112.4bp.
• TYH6 trades at 112-10 (+01) on very thin volumes of 190k, holding within yesterday’s range.
• The technical set-up points to a bearish outlook with support at the bear trigger of 111-29 (Dec 10 low) before 111-19 (Fibo projection). Resistance meanwhile is seen at 112-20 (20-day EMA) before 112-23 (Dec 11 high).
• Data: Weekly ADP (0815ET), NFP Nov (0830ET), Retail sales Oct (0830ET), NY Fed services (0830ET), Weekly Redbook retail sales (0855ET), S&P Global PMIs Dec prelim (0945ET), Business inventories Sep (1000ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $75B 6W Bill auction (1130ET)
• Politics: Trump in ambassador credentialing ceremony (1400ET, closed press), Trump participates in Hanukkah reception (2015ET)

• In FX, gains in EURUSD is trading at its cycle highs. Recent gains reinforce a bull theme highlighting potential for an extension higher. The recent breach of key short-term resistance at 1.1656, the Nov 13 high and a bull trigger, highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 1.1779 next, the October 1 high. Initial support to watch is 1.1649, the 20-day EMA and a pivot level.
• A bullish extension last week in GBPUSD confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 1.3452 next, 61.8% of the Sep 17 - Nov 4 bear leg. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull theme and open 1.3527, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support is seen at 1.3286, the 20-day EMA.
• Despite the latest pullback, the trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. The move down between Nov 20 - Dec 5 appears to have been a correction and the recovery from the Dec 5 low highlights the end of the corrective phase. However, support at 154.00, the 50-day EMA, remains exposed. A clear breach of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 158.00.

• Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged overnight for near-term meetings but up to 1.5bp higher for meetings in 2H26 despite crude oil futures slipping another 1%.
• It comes ahead of an important NFP release, with two months of payrolls data and a single month of unemployment data, with retail sales for October landing simultaneously and expected to show a generally solid start to Q4.
• MNI Payrolls Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Nov2025_Preview_postshutdown_392dffc2d3.pdf
• There is currently no Fedspeak scheduled today, with Fed Gov. Waller (voter, dove) first in line for a payrolls reaction tomorrow at 0815ET when he speaks on the economic outlook.
• Cumulative cuts from 3.64% effective: 7bp Jan, 14bp Mar, 20bp Apr, 34bp Jun, 49.5bp Sep and 57bp Dec.
• SOFR futures are up to 1 tick lower in 2H26/1H27 contracts, with the terminal implied yield of 3.14% (Z6) holding within recent ranges.
• A reminder that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is now a slight favorite for next Fed Chair after a further boost yesterday, at 44% on Polymarket vs 42% for NEC’s Kevin Hassett.