EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Ahlibank: Q2 ’25 earnings, neutral read
(ABQKQD; A2/NR/A)
• Qatar’s Ahlibank posted Q2 ‘25 interim results, that make for a neutral read, spreads are at the local lows.
• Looking at the interim, we note +5% YoY in net profit at QAR173mn on lower net impairments on investment securities, the total op Inc is +3% YoY at QAR450mn with the marginally up YoY contribution for segment including corporate banking, lower NII -12% YoY at QAR336mn and strong net F&C income at almost QAR92mn. Asset quality shows sequentially higher quarterly NPLs at 2.95% (vs 2.79% previous), still solid. Capital position remains adequate with CAR sequentially lower at 20.44% vs YE ‘24.
• Ahli Bank acts as a well-established, wholesale and retail bank focused on Qatar. The shareholding structure benefits from a stable, domestic backing, with the Qatar Investment Authority (and subsidiaries) holding some 47.25%.
• Our screen feeds show recently issued ABQKQD 4.95 Mar30 charting near the local lows at z+104bp or T+67bp, having launched at T+105bp last March 18 (source: MNI, Bloomberg Finance L.P. data).
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EQUITIES: US Program Buyer on the Open
- Program buyer on the Cash Open, 1499 names, the most since 27th May.
- Next Immediate resistance in SPX comes at 6059.40, last Week's high, and also the best printed level since February, the Index is now trading at 6021.42.
USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.3861/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
- RES 1: 1.3732 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3542 @ 14:41 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 1.3535 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3410 1.764 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and fresh cycle lows last week and again today, reinforce a bearish theme. Support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3535 next, envelope-based support, and 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 1.3732.
SONIA: Ratio Call Spread vs Put
0NU5 96.90/97.40cs 1x1.25 vs 96.10p, bought the cs for 0.5625 in 10k.
