EU TRANSPORTATION: Aena: FV (x2)

• In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Initial support to watch is 6830.94, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 6785.50, the 50.0% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 11 rally. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the key resistance and bull trigger at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high.
• The current bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact. Price is trading above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and has cleared 5742.40, 76.4% of the Nov 13 - 21 bear leg. The breach of this latter price point paves the way for an extension towards 5825.00, the Nov 13 high and the bull trigger. First key support to watch lies at 5645.93, the 50-day EMA. Initial support is 5695.62, the 20-day EMA.

• MNI looks at the BOJ's rate-setting calculations into 2026 -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

Slightly weaker-than-expected Eurozone December flash PMIs had little impact on core EGBs - the data doesn’t materially change expectations ahead of Thursday's ECB decision. Alongside the ECB, there remains interest in issuance plans from Germany and Italy on Thursday/Friday. German yields are up to 1bp lower across the curve, with the 5-year tenor modestly outperforming. 

• 10-year Bund yields are ~2.85%, with the early December rise stalling ahead of the 2.90% figure.
• Bund futures are -4 ticks at 127.54, with a bear cycle still intact. Initial resistance remains at 128.08 (Dec 8 high).
• Note that the 10-year BTP/Bund spread is back above 70bp simply owing to a Bloomberg benchmark roll.
• The 10-year OAT/Bund spread remains above 70bps. The National Assembly is expected to submit final approval of the 2026 social security bill today, but primary uncertainty remains on state budget negotiations.
• In addition to yesterday's plans for the EU to issue E90bln of EU-bonds in H1-26, it has now noted that it expects "around" E160bln for 2026 as a whole (the same target as 2025 and same H1/H2 breakdown). 10-year EU-bonds outperform Bunds by around 1.5bps on the session (spread at 35bps).
• Today’s global calendar is headlined by the US labour market report.