EM ASIA CREDIT: Adani Ports (ADSEZ): SEC trying to serve electronically

The BBDXY range overnight was 1201.20 - 1204.03, Asia is currently trading around {BBDXY Index}. The USD broke back below 1203-1204 yesterday and extended lower as risk continues to build on its end of year gains. The move last week had more to do with the surge higher in USD/JPY than any real USD strength as the moves elsewhere in currencies and more importantly in metals attest to. On the day, I suspect rallies to be faded while the 1210 area holds. First sell-zone is between 1204-1206, looking to retest the 1198-1200 support. 

• Bloomberg - “ The dollar is heading for its worst annual performance in eight years, and the options market is signaling that traders are preparing for more downside in the final sessions of 2025 and beyond.  {NSN T7QE1DKJH6V4 <GO>}” 
• The BBDXY Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 381 Points

Fig 1: BBDXY Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Spot USD/CNH holds under 7.0200 in early Wednesday dealings. We are up slightly from intra-session lows on Tuesday of 7.0143. Broader USD indices mostly remain under pressure. We did see a brief bounce in Tuesday US trade, post the better than expected Q3 GDP print, but this was sold into. Spot USD/CNY finished up Tuesday trade under 7.0300, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker fell by 0.25% to 97.81, as broader yuan trends lagged USD weakness. 

• Spot USD/CNH is getting closer to a 7.00 test, while all key EMAs continue to track lower, the 20-day just above 7.0500.
• USD/CNH looks too high relative to a slightly firmer US-CH yield backdrop, the 2yr spread back to +217bps, against recent lows of +205bps. Still, this hasn't been a driver of CNH sentiment of late.
• Markets also welcomed news that while the US stated China has engaged in unfair trade practices in the semiconductor sector, it is not raising tariff levels until mid 2027 (via BBG). The Golden Dragon index was down 0.58% in US trade on Tuesday though. Onshore equities are back above 4600 for the CSI 300.
• The local data calendar is empty until Nov industrial profits print this coming Saturday. China markets remain open Thurs/Fri this week. 

The overnight range was 2.0137 - 2.0230, Asia is trading around {GBPAUD Curncy}. The pair stalled above 2.0250 and as risk has pushed higher into year-end the AUD is looking to outperform in the crosses. My bias has been skewed lower so this price action looks constructive while the pair trades heavy below 2.0250-2.0300. On the day, look for sellers to reemerge back toward the 2.0185-2.0215 area, looking for a move back towards the pivotal 2.0000 support. 

• The GBP/AUD Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 92 Points

Fig 1: GBP/AUD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P