EU FINANCIALS: ABN AMRO: 3Q25 Results Headlines & Acquisition
(ABNANV; Aa3/A/A+)
ABN will acquire NIBC from Blackstone for 0.85x book from Blackstone. Expected to close in H2 and have a -70bps CET1 impact. ABN's ROIC projection for the bank is 18% by 2029. The NIBCAP should tighten in towards ABNANV this morning. As at last night close the dated bonds look to have been trading 20-30bps wide of ABN.
As for ABN's results they are slightly disappointing. Net revenue misses expectations by -3.7% as all divisions underperform slightly. A €49m provision write back illustrates both the bank's loan quality but also flatters the quarters OpInc number which comes in only in-line with expectations. CET1 stable.
- Net Interest Income €1,580mn vs est. €1,595mn (3.1% QoQ / -3.5% YoY)
- Net Fee & Commission Income €561mn vs est. €543mn (14.0% QoQ / 17.4% YoY)
- Net Trading income €55mn vs est. €32mn (12.2% QoQ / 27.9% YoY)
- Operating Expenses €1,409mn vs est. €1,399mn (7.0% QoQ / 5.6% YoY)
- Loan Loss Provision €-49mn vs est. €45mn (716.7% QoQ / 69.0% YoY)
- Pre-Tax Income €809mn vs est. €804mn (-2.6% QoQ / -14.7% YoY)
- Net Income €617mn vs est. €591mn (1.8% QoQ / -10.6% YoY)
- CET1 Ratio 14.8%
- NPL/Total Loans (bps) 203.9 vs est. 211.5
- Cost of Risk (bps) -7.4 vs est. 6.8
- OpInc/RWA (bps) 57 vs est. 56
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Broken Call Fly
ERU6 98.12/98.37/98.50 broken c fly, bought for 5.25 up to 5.5 in 5k.
EGB OPTIONS: Schatz Call seller
DUX5 107.10c, sold at 5.5 in 3k (suggest closing).
STIR: Majority of Friday's Dovish EUR STIR Repricing Holds
ECB-dated OIS price 14bps of easing through July 2026, the first time markets have leant in favour of one more 25bp cut this cycle since the September 11 decision. The ESTR 1y1y rate has also inched back below the overnight rate. The majority of Friday afternoon’s dovish repricing on Trump’s China tariff threats has held, despite a softening in stance from the White House over the weekend.
- A reintroduction of trade policy uncertainty and increase in US/China tariffs would have dovish implications for the ECB. Such an outcome would comprise recent optimism around the growth outlook (in September, the growth outlook was described as “more balanced”, with previous guidance suggesting there were “downside risks”), and potentially renew concerns around disinflationary Chinese trade diversion.
- ECB officials will want to see how the situation evolves in the coming weeks, with focus also on the heavy regional data calendar towards the end of this month.
- Euribor futures are little changed through the blues. As noted above, early flows in ERM6 reflect activity in the ESTR/ERM6 spread.
- This week’s regional calendar is light, headlined by final September HICP readings.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Oct-25 | 1.925 | -0.1 |
| Dec-25 | 1.899 | -2.7 |
| Feb-26 | 1.879 | -4.7 |
| Mar-26 | 1.828 | -9.8 |
| Apr-26 | 1.811 | -11.5 |
| Jun-26 | 1.789 | -13.7 |
| Jul-26 | 1.786 | -14.0 |
| Sep-26 | 1.788 | -13.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
