EU TRANSPORTATION: Abertis: 3Q Results
(ABESM: Baa3/BBB-/BBB)
(owned by Mundy's, ACS and Hochtief)
From Mundy's results:
- YTD revenue €4.6b, +1% (1H was -1% but LFL +6%)
- YTD EBITDA €3.2b, +1% (1H -2%, LFL +6%)
- YTD capex ex. M&A €0.7b (+0.2b)
- Net debt €24.3b (+0.6b)
- €1.5b acquisition of 51% stake in A63 (SW France) in June. Mundy's & ACS injected €400m equity to support.
Moody's initiated at Baa3 in August/after 1H results and had 2024 year-end FFO to Debt at 9.6% and coverage at 1.3x. Thresholds are >9% and >1.1x.
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US TSYS: Repo Reference Rates
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.19% (+0.04), volume: $2.932T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.16% (+0.04), volume: $1.144T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.16% (+0.04), volume: $1.113T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
GILT PAOF RESULTS: The PAOF for the 0.125% Aug-31 Linker was not taken up.
- GBP375.0mln have been available.
- This leaves GBP14.254bln of the linker in issue.
EGBS: OAT Futures Narrowing Gap To Resistance; French Risks Still Present
OAT futures are slowly narrowing the gap to resistance at 123.23 (equates to the 3.35% 10-year yield level), currently +47 ticks at 123.16. Regional headline flow remains fairly limited, with yesterday’s pullback in near-term French political risks driving the intraday bid in EGBs.
Although French PM Lecornu now looks likely to survive tomorrow’s censure votes, France’s political/fiscal outlook still faces risks.
- Socialist leader Faure has noted that "I didn't buy the budget, I'm going to fight it tooth and nail from now on, and we'll see who on the right and the left gets satisfaction article by article."
- Lecornu will have to tread a fine line in budget negotiations to avoid losing implicit support of the Socialists and/or the LR. Some Socialist MPs (e.g. Paul Christophle) are still planning to censure the Government despite their Party’s intstructions.
- Additional concessions to the Socialists would further impede fiscal consolidation efforts, and likely push the expected 2026 deficit closer to 5.0%, rather than the 4.7% currently targeted.
That said, today’ s strength in OAT futures is continuing to support Bunds. Bund futures are once again testing the 130.00 figure (+29 ticks at 129.97), which shields resistance at 130.05 (76.4% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg).
