US DATA: A Dovish Household Survey Even Allowing For Series Volatility
Mar-07 13:58
- The household survey leans dovish, with the unemployment rate nearly rounding to 4.2 with the 4.139% as noted earlier after 4.01% in Jan.
- Consensus had been for another 4.0% but with a sizeable skew of analysts to a surprise with 4.1%.
- It came despite the participation rate falling more than expected, although rounding exaggerated the move a touch as it dipped from 62.62% to 62.44% (cons 62.6).
- Household employment slumped -588k in the typically volatile survey after what the BLS estimated last month was a 234k M/M increase when adjusting for a huge 2.0m population effect.
- Adding to the dovish theme, the underemployment rate jumped 0.5pps to 8.0% for its highest since Oct 2021. The 0.5pp increase is the largest rounded monthly increase since the start of the pandemic and before that May 2009.
- In a clear sign of businesses becoming increasingly cautious, those working part-time for economic reasons increased 460k, its largest increase since mid-2023 and before that the pandemic.
- This pick-up in part-time for economic reasons should however be firmly caveated by the inherent noise in the series and the fact it followed some recent weakness in the series.
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