US: 86% Of Americans Believe Iran War Is Negatively Impacting Cost Of Living

US President Trump has given unscheduled remarks to reporters at the White House, starting on no tax on tips before turning to Iran. Comments re thinking Iran will now agree on nuclear follows Axios reporting a little earlier that there are gaps between the US and Iran on enrichment but a compromise appears possible. 

• "*TRUMP ON IRAN TALKS: THINK IRAN WILL NOW AGREE ON NUCLEAR
• *TRUMP: IRAN TALKS STICKING POINT WAS OVER NUCLEAR
• *TRUMP ON IRAN TALKS: CALLED BY OTHER SIDE, THEY WANT A DEAL" - bbg

Confirms Hormuz blockade now underway per the original 1000ET schedule, with potential details to follow tomorrow: 

• "*TRUMP: HORMUZ BLOCKADE STARTED AT 10AM ET"
• "*TRUMP: DETAILS PROBABLY TOMORROW ON COUNTRIES HELPING W/ HORMUZ" - bbg

On broad timelines and US oil exports: 

• "*TRUMP: COULD RESOLVE IRAN BEFORE TANKERS GET TO THE US
• *TRUMP: MANY SHIPS HEADLING TO US TO LOAD UP OIL
• *TRUMP: IRAN TIMETABLE HASN'T CHANGED, NO FIGHTING NOW" - bbg

Shortly before Trump spoke, Axios' Barak Ravid posted on X: A senior American official tells me: "Talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement"

• RES 4: 1.1825 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.1796 High Mar 2 
• RES 2: 1.1746 50.0% retracement of the Jan 27 - Mar 13 bear leg    
• RES 1: 1.1739 High Apr 10
• PRICE: 1.1706 @ 16:11 BST Apr 13
• SUP 1: 1.1602/1505 20-day EMA / Low Apr 6 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.1443/11 Low Mar 30 / Low Mar 13 & 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1373 1.764 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1340 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle

EURUSD is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains mark an extension of what still appears to be a corrective cycle. Price has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and sights are on 1.1746 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that trend signals continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.1505, the Apr 6 low. A break of it would signal a bear reversal.      

• Sentiment improved amid flurry of midday headlines regarding the Hormuz straight between the US and Iran, negotiations continuing even after the US blockade deadline had passed.
• TYM6 trades +2 at 111-05 vs. 111-06 high, important resistance at 111-19+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery and open 111-31, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Support for crude is waning, WTI below $100/bbl to appr $99.50/bbl vs. $105.50/bbl overnight high.
• Stocks are gaining: DJIA +.02%, SPX emini +.40%, Nasdaq +0.6%.