US DATA: 32-Year High In U.Mich Long-Term Consumer Inflation Expectations
Mar-14 14:27
- U.Mich consumer sentiment was notably lower than expected as it slid to 57.9 (cons 63.0) in the preliminary March release after 64.7 in February, for the lowest since Nov 2022.
- It came with a sharp climb in inflation expectations, with the 1Y surprisingly jumping to 4.9% (cons 4.3) after 4.3 and the 5-10Y jumping to 3.9% (cons 3.4) after 3.5% for a thirty-two year high.
- There are still clear political biases in these data, with Republican consumer expectations at 95.7 vs Democrat expectations at 28.2.
- This partisan issue was demonstrated throughout the inflation details as well, with 1Y expectations seen at 6.5% vs 0.1% for Democrats vs Republicans and 5-10Y at 4.6% vs 1.3%.
- That said, there was a notably increase in expectations for those identifying themselves as independents, with the 1Y at 4.4% after 3.7% in Feb and 3.1% in Jan, and the 5-10Y at 3.7% after 3.3% in Feb and 3.2% in Jan.
- This could be a sign that we could start seeing more distinct upward pressure in the NY Fed's consumer survey which as of February hasn’t shown anywhere near the same upward pressure.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITIES: Attention on the US Open
Feb-12 14:27
Attention turns to the US Cash open given the fall in Futures contract following the Strong US Inflation report.
Cash Equities will be gapping lower on the Open.
- Calls: SPX: 6,015.8 (-0.9%); DJIA: 44,230 (-0.8%/-363pts); NDX: 21,487.4 (-0.9%).
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Large March'25 10Y Sale
Feb-12 14:16
-19,000 TYH5 108-08.5, sell through 108-09.5 post time bid at 0903:13ET, DV01 $1.2M. The 10Y contract trades 108-07.5 last (-23).
EGBS: Natixis Like 5-Year OAT/Bund Tightener
Feb-12 14:14
Natixis note that “OAT 2/2030 offers the best carry & roll potential (on the French curve) vs. Bunds, on par with the “best” BTPs.”
- Natixis suggest that “with the political situation in France being more stable, OATs will likely be much more resilient and OAT/Bund spreads less volatile.”
- Therefore, they recommend buying OAT 2/2030 vs Bund 2/2030 at 57bp, setting a target at 45bp and a stop at 65bp with a 3-month horizon.
Trending Top
May-09 15:07
