STIR: 2025 Fed Rate Path Nears Most Hawkish Since Feb
May-28 16:57
- Fed Funds implied rates have consistently pushed higher since around 0830ET today, with no material headlines or data behind the move.
- The Dec’25 implied rate is within 0.5bp of overnight Monday levels (ahead of a thin Memorial Day session) that were the most hawkish since February.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jun, 5.5bp Jul, 17bp Sep, 28.5bp Oct and 45bp Dec.
- The SOFR implied yield is 8bp higher on the day at 3.334% (SFRZ6), back a little firmer within ranges over the past two and a half weeks after closing yesterday at their most dovish since May 9.
- The upcoming 5Y auction could drive a reaction in front rates before the FOMC minutes at 1400ET.
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OPTIONS: Busier Than Usual Session For Sonia, Especially Call Structures
Apr-28 16:52
Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- RXM5 130/129 put spread, paper pays 23 in 5.9k
- 2RZ5 97.25/97.00 put spread, paper sells for 2.75 on 10k
- SFIK5 95.85/95.90/96.00/96.05c condor, sold at 2.5 in 2.5k
- SFIK5 96.20/96.30cs, bought for 1 in 2k
- SFIM5 95.75/95.85/95.95c fly, sold at 2.5 down to 2.25 in 6k
- SFIU5 96.35/96.6/96.85c fly, bought for 4.5 in 7k
STIR: Midday SOFR Options Update
Apr-28 16:40
- -4,000 SFRH6/0QH6 98.00 call spds, 0.75 midcurve over
- -5,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.50/95.87 1x call flys, 6.25 vs. 96.59/0.17%
- Block/screen, -12,000 SFRN5 96.50/97.00 call spds, 7.0 ref 92.265
- -2,000 SFRZ5 98.00/99.00 call spds, 4.5
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Updated Guidance
Apr-28 16:31
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/28 $Benchmark Alphabet 4pt 5Y +32, 10Y +47, 30Y +62, 40Y +70; also in Euro: 4Y, 8Y, 12Y, 20Y and 29Y.
- 04/28 $1.125B #Consumer Energy $500M +5Y +67, $625M 10Y +87
- 04/28 $1.1B #Northern States Power $600M 10Y +83, $500M 30Y +98
- 04/28 $700M #Posco Holdings $400M 5Y +137.5, $300M 10Y +157.5
- 04/28 $700M *Kookmin Bank $400M 3Y +77.5, $300M 5Y +82.5
- 04/28 $Benchmark Keurig Dr Pepper 1.5Y SOFR+58, 3Y +68, 5Y +83, 10Y +98
- 04/28 $Benchmark Philip Morris 3Y +58, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75, 10Y +93
- 04/28 $Benchmark CBRE Services 5Y +120, 10Y +135
- 04/28 $Benchmark Procter & Gamble 5Y +55a, 10Y +70a
- 04/28 $Benchmark General Dynamics 10Y +110a
- 04/28 $Benchmark World Bank 3Y +38a, 7Y +57a
- 04/28 $Benchmark Colgate Palmolive 5Y +60a
- 04/28 $Benchmark DR Horton +5Y +130a
- 04/28 $Benchmark Goldman Sachs investor calls
- Expected Tuesday
- 04/29 $Benchmark KFW 5Y SOFR+45a
- 04/29 $Benchmark Swedish Export Credit Corp 3Y SOFR+48a
