US: 2025 Could Be First Year On Record To See US Population Shrink
Derek Thompson, co-author of the centre-left political policy book Abundance, writes on Substack that 2025 could be the first year on record in which the US population shrinks.
- Thompson writes: “This would be a historic first. For nearly 250 years, America has only known growth. According to our best estimates, the nation’s population expanded throughout the Civil War, despite the deaths of more than 700,000 Americans. It grew throughout the Spanish Flu, both World Wars, and countless bloody entanglements with other countries. Even COVID, which killed more than a million Americans, didn’t reverse the trend. But Trump’s immigration crackdown may accomplish what no war, plague, or calamity has ever done.”
- William Frey, at the Brookings Institution, said: “It’s certainly possible. My bet at the beginning of 2025 was that growth would be positive but very slow. But it’s certainly possible that the population could shrink this year.”
- Immigration remains by far Trump's best issue with voters. According to Silver Bulletin, Trump's approval rating on immigration (-3.3%) is significantly higher than his approval ratings on the economy (-12.5%), trade (-14.9%), and inflation (-22.4%).
Figure 1: Annual Change in US Population
Source: American Enterprise Institute, Axios
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- RES 4: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
- RES 3: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.1789 High Jul 24
- RES 1: 1.1617 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.1562 @ 17:15 BST Aug 4
- SUP 1: 1.1401 Low Jul 30 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.1373 Low Jun 10
- SUP 3: 1.1313 Low May 30
- SUP 4: 1.1184 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle
Despite Friday's rally, EURUSD maintains a bearish tone. The recent breach of key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1548, highlights a stronger reversal and the start of a correction. This opens 1.1373 next, the Jun 10 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.1617, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to signal a reversal. Today’s gains highlight a key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.1401, Jul 30 low. A break would resume the downtrend.
