ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: 12-month BOT on offer Wednesday 12 November
Nov-07 16:48
The MEF has announced that it will look to sell E8.5bln of the new 12-month Nov 13, 2026 BOT at its ...
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STIR: Near-Term Rate Path Back Close To Pre-ADP Levels, FOMC Minutes To Come
Oct-08 16:47
- Fed Funds implied rates are towards their most hawkish of the day, with the Dec implied rate for example back close to levels prior to last week’s soft ADP release.
- Further gains for crude oil futures (WTI 1st +1.3%) and S&P 500 e-minis back at record highs are likely in the driving seat.
- Moves are still relatively modest on the day, with 1.5bp increases for Dec and Jan meetings and 2.5bp higher through Mar-Jun meetings.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.08% effective: 22bp Oct, 42.5bp Dec, 52.5bp Jan, 62.5bp Mar, 69bp Apr and 82.5bp June.
- SOFR futures also see modest losses, sitting 2 ticks lower through H6-H7 contracts.
- The SOFR implied terminal yield of 3.07% is back in the SFRH7 after technically tilting into the Z6 on Monday for the first time since mid-July. It roughly points to 100bp of cuts ahead.
- Fedspeak has indeed been a non-event today although we are still to get the FOMC minutes at 1400ET - see the above posts starting 1121ET for a more detailed take on what to look for. That's barring any spillover to front rates at the upcoming 10Y auction at 1300ET.
FED: US TSY 9Y-10M AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $78 MLN FROM $39.000 BLN TOTAL
Oct-08 16:45
- US TSY 9Y-10M AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $78 MLN FROM $39.000 BLN TOTAL
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 2Y Sale
Oct-08 16:33
- -6,364 TUZ5 104-07, post time bid at 1224:51ET, DV01 $250,000.
- The 2Y contract trades 104-07 last (-1.12)
